Evening Comment – #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans – 13/05/2015

Wheat down, corn and soybeans up.

 

But before… Close to 1.14… EURUSD is in a very good shape! Well to be honest this time it is US dollar weakening facing all currencies: GBP, CAD, AUD,… US Retails Sales were flat month on month and FX market has been disappointed. Versus Euro, the question is more at what level structural problems in Europe will become more important than growth problems in the US. Story far from over about the Greece indeed.

 

Bird flu is back in the headlines. A sixteenth US state is impacted: Nebraska as its first contaminated birds indeed. Total death toll is 32 million. Same comment as usual, scary number but it’s only a small percentage of the total population. But worrying anyway. Soy complex could not care less and was up: NOPA April crush is seen at 147.827 million bushels. It is a record for April month. Soy oil stocks are at 2.058 billion lbs.

 

Ethanol production is up week on week (+25,000 barrels per day more) while stocks were down roughly 500,000 barrels. This probably helped the core to maintain versus the wheat.

 

Temperature in southern US are below average overnight and it’s still heard there are some concerns of freezing overnight and a few pictures of damaged wheat are surfacing.

 

Tunisia finally bought 100,000T of soft wheat and 142,000T of Durum, optional origin. EU Cleared 477,000T of soft wheat, total this season 28.4MT. This is much better than last week (273,000T). It needs to pace up indeed as wheat is piling up with the harvest only 2 month away.

 

France Agrimer maintained its old crop estimates for ending stocks of soft wheat 3.6MT. Ukrainian Agriculture Minister said it’s too early to make accurate forecast on the new crop while spring wheat crop planting is 83% completed and corn planting 79% completed.

 

MATIF was pretty quiet but finally woke up when Chicago outcry opened. U5 less liquid once again than Z5 and market closed more than 2 euros down on the 3 first expiries. Without any doubt, EURUSD higher contributed. In dollars, it is still very close to $200.

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