Evening Comment – #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans – 01/06/2015

Wheat was trying hard to retrace the whole Friday sell off, and actually did it pretty easily. There must be a few long gamma traders very happy these days. There are still some talks about rain delaying the start of the harvest in Texas and Oklahoma and rain before the harvest can be really bad and destroy the quality. There are fears some milling wheat will be downgraded to feed wheat (copy and paste of the French old crop? Excellent quantity but poor quality?) If freeze damages seems to be almost out of the picture in the US (North Dakota seems to record a few damages), Canada still worries for wheat (and Canola which will need reseeding on a significant number of acres) in Manitoba and Alberta. In that condition, this is logic the Wheat Corn spread is widening again. But condition report later today might calm the nervous atmosphere… Unless wheat is quality is actually (unlikely) downgraded, which is not expected by the market. Concerning plantings, Wheat should be completed, Corn should be very close to completion while soybeans above three quarters. 

Export inspections were within the expectations for Wheat and Corn, below for soybeans. It is now expected Wheat and Beans to reach USDA expectations, Corn could be actually slightly shy but there is still some time to pace up.

 

El Niño back in the headlines, weather is dryer in South Asia and Oceania. The start of the monsoon is erratic in India.

 

Early session, there was some interesting activity on put options on MATIF. But when Chicago woke up, market followed, helped by a weaker euro. +4.75 on the close… Nice volume, 25,000 lots on U5 and Z5, Z5 still more liquid than U5.

 

EURUSD playing with 1.09, trading on both sides.

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