Who is to blame today? US Dollar. Nice move, EURUSD and AUDUSD up more than 2%, GBPUSD up 1%, USDCAD down 1%… Market is expecting Greece to be saved! Woo hoo! June and July are bigtime for Greece indeed, sizeable amounts are to be paid to ECB. Did market really expected Greece would default without any kind of talks and deals? If so EURUSD would probably be below parity already… So this is not a surprise, some kind of arrangements are going to be found. It seems to be a never ending situation but it will end for sure, the question is more when, but Q3 seems a bit early. Obviously Greeks are going to try everything they can to blackmail ECB to receive some kind of back up and a new bail out.
So it is not really favourable to all US markets, and considering the short positions, stop triggering, market weather, it is logic some want to take a breather and cut position and watch the show from outside. Ironically, the weather models seem to be improving. But interestingly Wheat Corn spread continues to widen. Green across the board then today.
Texas and Oklahoma have slowly begun to cut wheat… Waiting on the first reports for yield and quality.
MATIF was up as well, it could not care less about a stronger euro today. Huge volatility interest today and still some put options interests. More than 25,000 total lots traded on U5 and Z5 and there was an interesting pressure number of rolls. U5 will be a very short lived expiry.
Russian Agricultural Minister said Russia might export 25 to 30 million tons of grain next season if the crop reaches 100MT.