After sleeping on the USDA Report, wake up feeling is weird. Yes that is still bearish crop, all the talks fears seems pointless. Yes but on the other side, it’s still not the real summer, market has been shaken up on a very unusual weather market for the season. On wheat basically, if the rain has been bad for some part, it has been good elsewhere. Rain makes grains… So let’s say it confirms supply are going to be good but let’s still be careful. Bearish wheat, neutral to bearish on corn and soybeans. Well, funds seems to think this is very bearish still! They sold 13,000 lots of wheat, 14,000 lots of Corn, 3,000 lots of soybeans. Wheat is more or less back to 100,000 lots short while corn is at 185,000 lots short and soybeans to 75,000 short. With this report out of the way, will market take a clearer trend?
Egypt’s GASC is very consistent to its usual strategy: big down day, the day after, tender! Shipment second half of July, Black Sea wheat should win it again, period is slightly too trick for French wheat and considering MATIF Price in dollar, French traders are probably not going to rush.
Otherwise. Strike in Argentina affecting the grains logistics. Philippines bought 58kT of feed wheat.
France is dry so far but the state of crop are great and if rain is coming to re-establish moisture, the condition are ideal. In other words, dryness is not yet a concern. Agriculture Minister in France said he’s expecting 7.70T per hectare. Let’s do the maths… Almost 40MT of wheat. This would be a record. Rain needed though.
The Greek drama (tragedy?) is continuing. It is like Tsipras is telling Merkel “I dare you to kick me out if you are so strong”, she replies “I dare you to leave if you are so tough”. But it seems that Germany is going to throw the towel and accept lower commitment on austerity from Greece.