Morning Comment – #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans – 23/06/2015

Market rebounded on the start of the week and it continues during the night session. It is still wetter, especially in Illinois and east. But tho overall picture is improving. Add the stock report on the 30th, market is keen on covering shorts. Funds bought 9,000 soybeans, 5,000 wheat and 3,000 corn.
Soybeans planting were very slow last week, 3% only! 90% is planted. It’s a delay of 5% compared to last year and the 5 year average. Hopefully, no more than 2 more weeks will be needed especially with improving weather conditions. Wheat harvest is pacing up slightly, +8% this week to 19%, still lagging 12% compared to last year and the 5 year average.

 

As per conditions, same principle as last week: winter wheat getting worse (41% of G/E, -2% week on week) but spring wheat is getting better (+1% to 71% of G/E). Spring Wheat condition is the same than last year, while winter wheat is still much better than last year (41% G/E versus 30% while 22% of P/VP versus 44%). Soybeans took the biggest hit, -2% of G/E to 65% and +7% of P/VP to 8%. Corn is -2% of G/E to 71% and +1% of P/VP to 6%. If it obviously can be better, compared to the last 10 years, condition of crops are quite satisfactory.

 

MATIF followed Chicago up and was helped by the dryness in northern France, Germany and Eastern Europe. Quiet day on options markets, some interest in Z5 calls, H6 volatility and even far away Z6 combos, sounds like millers are out to hedge long term business.

 

Ethiopia bought and additional 160,000T through a tender, totalizing 400,000T.

 

Meanwhile, in Europe, good steps. We’re improving towards a deal. However, Greece is not keen on reducing pensions and hiking VAT on energy but is keen on raising taxes targeting wealthier people. And the bank run is continuing, it might become a concerna and capital control is not unlikely. EURUSD between 1.12 and 1.13.

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