Morning Comment – #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans – 29/07/2015

These can of days are boring when it follows such dramatic days! But market need to take a breather. A bit of short covering, profit taking after this bearish rally. But still weather conditions are remaining quite favourable. Funds bought between 3,000 (ADM IS) and 7,000 (Reuters) lots of Soybeans unless is 3,400 (AgResource), wheat buying between 2,000 (ADM IS) an 5,000 (Reuters) lots, and Corn, wait for it, bought 3,000 lots (Reuters) unless they sold 6,000 lots (ADM IS). Night session seem keen on pursuing the down trend. 

Wheat Council tour is forecasting historic yields in North Dakota and Minnesota, 51.1 bushel per acre. More and more it sounds like the wet weather just moved quantity from one place to another. It is just the beginning of the Crop Tour though so let’s not get overly excited.


MATIF wheat had one of these days where it did not really know where to go, like a poor lost puppy. A bit of holiday mood actually, most of the French traders will be away until mid-August. Anyway, the level of 180 on September seems too close not to pay a little visit while harvest is going really well, the fears of dryness back in June seem to be proven unjustified. Market is opening on a soft note.


South Africa is saying Corn crop will be 9.75MT, unchanged compared to previous forecast. Wheat planting will reach 478,300 hectares, this is +3.6% compared to 2014. Ukraine Agriculture Minister said they exported 1.87MT of grains so far this season, 26% being wheat. So far they harvested 23.7MT of grains from 7 million hectares, including 16.9MT of wheat (from 4.7 million hectares) In Russia, the Rubble is now so weak the tax export tax is kicking off.


Tunisia tender offers for 134,000T of milling wheat have to be submitted today. The 68kT of optional corn for South Korea was booked at $186.6 CNF.


EURUSD in a kind of standby, Greece bail out discussions and FED are the two subjects that could bring some volatility in the near future.


It is grading a lot in Coffee warehouses, the squeeze is definitely on! However, despite first rumours, the close of Armajaro fund seems to be completely unrelated, and their flagship fund is still alive and kicking and said to be actually on the good side of the squeeze alongside with trade house in Switzerland (who, rumour has it was on the good side of a sugar corner a few years ago). So yes, after the big cocoa squeeze, the manage to be on the good side as well! Well done.

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