Late Comment – #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans – 07/08/2015

Rebound day yesterday on wheat and market is on the same mood today, technical rebound, new short taking profit before the report. Nothing much more interesting to say. Market is clearly waiting for the main event of next week… USDA WASDE report. But the main focus will definitely be corn and soybeans with a special focus on US yield. Weather is still very favourable in the US despite some farmers starting to complain about the heat and dry conditions. So wheat went up soybeans went down on poor exports sales and corn was attracted on the downside in a lower extent. Everything is forgotten today and the slight bullish mood is across the board. 

Funds sold 7,000 soybeans, 6,000 corn and bought 5,000 wheat.

 

MATIF rebounded, no real fundamental reason really. French wheat still not competitive on the exports, wheat crop will be close to record high in term of quantity (Demande Agricole is forecasting 39.4MT, Agritel 38.9MT) and quality. So this rebound is clearly technical and MATIF follows once again Chicago living his own life. Today interesting action on the U/Z spread, with Senalia full, get ready for some move. Andnow, Socomac is full as well! There is a capacity problem in the silos of the exchange, this is becoming more and more obvious… Same for barley, farmers are very happy. EU cleared 370,000T of export licences. The only concerns remains the corn and picture is overall similar in Europe. French corn conditions are down 1% to 58% G/E, while P/VP are up 3% to 19%, so concerns are real. South west of Paris and east of France are the areas with the biggest downgrade.

 

Russia harvest is 30.3% done, 45MT of grains have been harvested so far and Crop Cast raised its wheat estimates to 56.3MT (+1.25MT). Algeria and the 4.9MT crop of 2013 is a long forgotten souvenir…in 2015, it will only slightly exceed 3MT and the Minister feels confident imports will have to be increased. India, the 10% import duty means more or less no import and Minister announced it will be in force until the end of March 2016. India will be then pushed to use the bad quality wheat from the local crops. Jordan is tendering to buy 100,000T of Feed Barley, South Korea to buy 55,000T of soybean meals from south America.

 

EURUSD rebounded but stays within its boring range, now just below 1.10. No big news. September might be another story with the FED and why not new development on the Greek side.

 

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