Incredible season… We’re moving from wetness concerns to dryness concerns… Market is starting the week on a quiet higher note, risk off before the 12th of August. We’ll have a better view on Wednesday… USDA WASDE indeed. Watch out corn and soybeans yield. We’ll soon see if this rebound was a change in trend or a bull trap kind of pause.
If France’s wheat crop is now expected to be a record, all analysts are now forecasting above 39MT, Germany is expected to be down 8.3% from last year, to 25.1MT. However, France and Europe might be glad Germany is taking a hit as the competition on exports is increasing, especially with Black Sea. In June, EU exported only 1.1MT, season total was 11.4MT, down 7%.
MATIF started the week on a higher note as well. Rebound is technical and maybe there’s a bit of Corn sympathy. Indeed, silking is stressed and corn has clearly suffered in Europe, it’s still unclear in what extent the yield is going to be impacted.
Ukraine early harvest is 92% completed with 24.3MT of grains. Russian wheat crop will now be clearly above 55MT with latest conservative estimates to 57MT.
Saudi bought 505,000T of wheat.
EURUSD is still ranging below 1.10. No big news.