So to sum up, Wednesday, market moved up, correction on Thursday, and a correction of the correction today… Despite bearish news, market don’t know where to go and is clearly nervous. Fundamental news are bearish: harvest and planting going well in the US, favorable weather in the US, IGC saying the grains stockpiles are the highest in three decades, Brazil will import less (-13%) US HRW as the local crop is going to be better and the domestic demand lower. Funds sold yesterday 1,500 corn, 4,000 what but bought 4,000 soybeans. The only bullish news is about beans, Soybeans were up indeed on the Chinese news, and market seems to focus on it.
Chinese have surprised the market indeed: a total of 13.18MT of soybeans have been ceremonially sold. The dispatch between the crops are however not known and some very long term deals seems to be part of the package. But with a such low Brazilian real, mind the aggressiveness of South America… Would Chinese dare cancelling cargoes in the future?
So market is up today, across the board. Apart form the Soybean news (but this is not going to modify drastically the S&D), slightly against fundamentals. Month end adjustment and October option expiries are having a technical influence for sure. Soybeans are the star and wheat and corn are following behind.
MATIF is no exception, helped by a lower euro, it is following Chicago. Are we heading towards a positive month to month close next week?
Harvest for Corn in France is kicking off, 4% is harvested, it is only +3% from last week, it’s been a bit wet. The condition improved, +1% of G/E to 56%.
In Russia, the situation with export tax is still contradictory. Mid-September, Russian Farm ministry already proposed a tax cut, increasing the tax-free threshold to 6,500 rubles with a minimum of 50 Rubles. We’re apparently still at this point but the minimum payable tax would be now 10 rubles as per the Deputy Prime minister proposed today, effect date 1st of October. Still waiting a confirmation as “propositions” don’t seem to be decision.
FED’s Yellen confirmed what market was thinking, the door is not closed for a rate hike before the end of the year. This is not really a surprise, market is expecting 2 windows: Q4 2015 or Q4 2016, with election in the middle, it’s unlikely to happen anytime in 2016 before the election indeed. There’s always some kind of reaction wean Governor is talking (EURUSD is going down, back below 1.12), however, after a while and a bit of noise and volatility, finally, does market really care? The non-hike rebound vanishing is a good example. Yield have already begin to increase on government bonds and market is totally expecting at some point a rate hike. What is more important is the fact it doesn’t mean the end of quantitative easing and with a +25 basis point, this is not going to make a drastic change, FED rate would still be very low and it’s policy still very accommodating.
Still a lot of talks about the DieselGate, if it is a widespread scam, diesel industry has a foggy future in front of it.