Green across the board yesterday, led by soybeans, followed by corn and wheat was lagging at the back of the pack. Funds bought 6,000 corn, 7,000 soybeans and were even on wheat. Today it is wheat leading, soybeans following and corn lagging, but still up across the board. Very technical sessions, market is waiting for the USDA WASDE report, coming once again a Friday. China is still in its golden week.
The current concern is still the same, dry weather in Australia and Black Sea. Damage in Australia is not widespread, while in Black Sea, it is still very early to get worried. However, for sure, situation must not last and rain must eventually fall on the recently planted grains. In Europe, it is also dryer than usual, but no concerns and the forecast are pretty good, some wet patches are coming from the north and north of the UK is hit hard with rains and whole Europe will eventually be showered in the next few weeks. In the US, no weather concerns.
Corn harvest is following it’s due course (27%, +9% from last week), in front of last year (+11%), slightly behind the 5 year average though (-5%). On the other side, it seems that farmers were keen on installing in priority the cutter bar for soybeans, +21% harvested from last week to 42%! It’s on its way to be an early crop, far in front of last year (+23%) and significantly above the 5 year average (+10%). And ratings improved again for soybeans, +2% G/E to 64% and -1% of P/VP to 11%. On its side, corn has not changed (68% of G/E, 10% of P/VP). Wheat planting is in progress, 49% planted, +18% from last week, slightly behind last year and the 5 year average but one cannot harvest soybeans and corn like crazy and plant wheat at the same time. So nothing really bullish about this week report.
MATIF had a similar pattern than Chicago yesterday, small up, spread action,… It’s up more frankly today. France winter wheat is planted 3%, barley 3%. In other words, it just started, respectively 4% and 8% behind last year. In Ukraine, government and traders agreed not to export more than 16.5MT of wheat (USDA is forecasting 3MT less), 16MT of Corn (USDA is forecasting 2.5M more) and 3.8MT of barley. The interesting fact is wheat seems to compensate efficiently the relative lack of corn in Europe and Black Sea.
South Korea is seeking milling wheat, close to 100kt for Q1 2016. Japan, is tendering Milling wheat, close to 120kt. Iraq tender is still on, 50kt. Algeria is tendering for milling wheat, it will be interesting to see what discount will be offered, however the results are not always known very accurately.
EURUSD still in the 1.12’s, Ruble and Real are continuing to regain some strength, respectively up 1.75% and 1.4% today.