After a sell off on Friday, rebound on Monday! And Night session seems to – so far – operate the usual Tuesday reversal. Yesterday funds bought 6,000 Corn, 2,000 Wheat and 4,000 Soybeans. Mostly short covering, bargain buying and technical operations, a bit of risk off before the FED. Now, Z5 contracts are out of the board. Market was also helped by a weaker US dollar. But market closed well off the highs, rebound met some selling interests and the fundamental mood stays bearish… So pretty choppy, there’s the big FED event this week and everyone is nervous about it markets are clearly macro and currencies focused.
MATIF yesterday pushed lower and when MATIF closed, spread in US dollar witch Chicago was back to much more decent levels: $11.86/T. MATIF in euro was lower, obviously helped by the higher euro but it now seems the market is keen on pushing down regardless of the currency. With good prospects for the 2016 stocks and the lack of competitiveness facing Black Sea, some are beginning to think that 175/180 euros is finally a good level taking into account the fundamentals. MATIF edged lower on the opening.
Snow is coming in the US Midwest. For the end of the year, temperatures are expected to be back around the season’s average, I’s about time! In South America, nothing much to say, temperatures above the average and precipitation below but nothing is really worrying.
NOPA crush later today… 161.7M bushels are expected, that would be +2.8M bushels from last month and +0.5M bushels from November 2014 which was a record. In Brazil, ABIOVE sees the soybean crop to 99.4MT, +0.8MT from their latest estimates, USDA is at 100MT.
Argentinian new president made it official: wheat (23%), corn (20%) and beef (15%) export tax will be abolished and soya exports tax cut to 30%. Farmers were sitting on their stockpile waiting for this, combined to a very low peso, they’re likely to be very aggressive. Argentinian wheat and corn are likely to become competitive everywhere… And rumor has it: it was competitive for Algeria! However, some farmers might wait also for more peso devaluation. Rosario Grain Exchange raise their wheat crop estimates by +0.5MT to 9.6MT, USDA is at 10.5MT. Corn is unchanged to 20.2MT and USDA is quite significantly below to 25.6MT. Soybeans are unchanged also to 55MT, also below USDA by -2MT.
Going back to Algeria, OAIC is not reporting the results of the tenders so it’s always trick to know what is true and what is untrue in the leaks. However, it’s now understood they actually bought 800,000T in the last tender.
In France, there’s more and more bird flu issues, two new outbreaks have been identified in the South West, 5 regions are hit. The scale is so far pretty limited but it’s to be taken into account. Consumer confidence can also be hit just before the holiday season. It comes just after Japan banned imports of French foie gras (1st importer). So some bad news for French poultries for the end of the year. It’s unlikely so far to hit feed demand thought.
Russian Agriculture Ministry said 2016 grain crop will reach 104MT. Jordan delays deadline of its tender to buy 100,000T of wheat. This is déjà -vu.
EURUSD keeps pushing higher, now above 1.10. Market is nervous. Oil rebounded on $35 and has recovered for now.