Small up week on week. Soybeans were only up +0.66%, Corn +0.47% and Wheat +0.79%. MATIF was down -0.30% in Euro and +0.07% in USD. There was some movement though, a very eventful week indeed. The contradicting stories from Russia and Egypt, the volatility of currencies (Real and Ruble recovered respectively 2.3% and 3.4%), macro events (BoJ moving to negative rate policy), oil recovery (back to above $33 on Russia being ready to negotiate cut with OPEC), Financial markets volatility (Asia has been hit hard),…
CFTC’s COT Tuesday to Tuesday showed some big short covering on Corn. Funds bought 71,013 lots! What is interesti9ng is the fact by the meantime market has only been up +0.41%. In other words, the funds bids are meeting some producers selling. The aggregated position of Wheat, Corn and Soybeans (all are still obviously short) estimated as of Friday is now only short 166,000 lots, which is much less than a few weeks ago where we were around 300,000.
The French Cargo was finally rejected by the GASC, French lobbying hasn’t been enough. Some are fearing supply issues… Flour millers in Egyp want the government to reduce the 25% import duty. Meanwhile, the shipment from Argentina has been approved. Will there be a next episode to this saga? In Russia, no move on the export tax, as well, maybe the story will continue later! There is rumors that despite a 25% import duty, Indi keeps buying Australian wheat.
Weather wise, South America seems wetter than usual. Some delays of harvests are expectable. Northern hemisphere still on its way to be milder. Mind the snow cover!
Night session is red across the board, reversal of Friday. Apart from the short covering, there was no big fundamental reason for market moving up anyway. MATIF is also down this morning, slightly higher EURUSD is adding pressure.
Talking about EURUSD, how boring these day. Trendless. It’s really an exception in the currency world these days! It’s the only pair not moving. Since after the early December ECB speech, market have been ranging with absolutely no real trend. Next FED or ECB event might be interesting, especially with the FED being the other way around other central banks, ECB will do more QE in March and Friday Bank of Japan made a surprise!
And… Baltic Dry Index… -33.68% YTD, keeps digging historical lows. Oil slightly lower but still above$33 and gold, slowly but surely,… Now above 1120 USD per ounce.