Finally, lower prices triggered some bids and a rebound. Funds were on the buy side: 1,000 lots of Corn, 5,500 Soybeans and 4,000 Wheat. Nothing new anyway, it’s a bit wait and see in a bearish mood, market is likely to react violently to the first bullish catalyst if it comes, but to sustain a rally, a real reason need to be found and so far, tough to find any. No major news on the weather side, pretty dull day actually, the only entertaining stuff was the GASC tender. Market finished on the positive territory but without a massive conviction. MATIF, on its side, closed down (it got hammered by the disappearance of French wheat in the GASC tender, indeed, it doesn’t really mean French wheat is out of stocks…) but Chicago helped recovering from the lows. Night session is still on the upside and MATIF opened ticking higher also.
FC Stone increase Soy Brazilian crop estimates at 98.6MT (+0.6MT), Informa raised its to 101.3MT (+0.8MT), USDA is at 100MT. On Corn, Informa raised Argentinian crop to 27MT (+1MT) and it now matches USDA’s forecast. FAO sees wheat crop to 733MT, pretty close to USDA’s 735.77MT.
On Canola, Canadian’s Paterson said price of Canola might continue to decrease due to the Chinese spec toughening.
GASC received only 6 offers in yesterday’s tender. And despite the fact French wheat need to be sold, no one dared showing up? Indeed, there was only Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian wheat offered. So either confidence is still struggling to come back. GASC finally bought 180kT at $184.71 CNF (two third being from Romania and one third form Ukraine), so far March is the lowest month of the season in terms of average booked price. Egypt has now covered it’s needs until late June, so another tender will follow shortly for sure.
Jordan is back, trying to buy hard wheat. Indian Mills bought 60,000T of Australian wheat ($230 CNF), meanwhile, India’s USDA attaché cut its forecast of wheat production by -2.44MT to 86.5MT and sees next year to 88MT. Taiwan millers bought a bit more than 100kT of US wheat. Finally, in Russia, first deputy Agriculture Minister said he expects 22 or 23MT of exports of wheat this marketing year. Ikar is at 24MT, RusAgroTrans at 24.5MT.
Nat Gas touched a 17 years low, not helped by the current oil prices. Below $40, there’s no real point of switching to gas so demand keeps being depressed. But US Crude Oil inventories are building up to a record level, so tough to see a rebound with a low demand without an action on the supply side. US inventories increased by +10.37M barrels, while only 3.6M was expected. Distillates stocks increased while a decrease was expected. On the ethanol side, stocks decreased by 481,000 barrels to still a very decent 22.62M barrels. Lower production slightly contributed to the move: -7,000 barrels per day to 987,000 barrels per day. So demand was higher but corn prices aren’t massively impressed. On Freight, Baltic Dry Index BADI is still on its bull run, very slow bull run that being said: +3 to 335. Gold is now above $1,240 per ounce.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are a bit boring, flattish but surely volatility will come back! Plenty of potential news to hit the markets, both macro and political.