Friday, market continued its rebound with Corn leading the way, followed by Soybeans. Meanwhile, Wheat was struggling, and was only up in Paris and Minneapolis. In Chicago, funds bought 7,000 Corn, 7,000 Soybeans and sold 1,000 Wheat. It’s a quiet start of the week, slightly up but nothing major. Anyway, market deserves a break after last week. ICE Canola was up +2.45% in CAD, MATIF Rapeseed +1.36% in EUR, CME Soybeans +1.96%, CME Corn +1.88%, MATIF Corn +1.15% in EUR, CME Wheat +3.26% and MATIF Wheat +1.64% in EUR. Question whether it was justified by a more or less -1.5MT cut on each world balance sheet will certainly be asked… Export inspections will certainly be the interesting data of the day.
Interesting CFTC’s COT. Reuters estimates fund were buyer 8,500 lots of Corn during a week (ending as usual on Tuesday). Well, this is a miss, funds actually increased their short position to 229,176 lots selling 25,339 lots over the week. Rally has been contained indeed on Corn. However, as expected, data showed Wheat and Soybeans short covered respectively 15,027 lots and 38,552 lots, reducing their short position to respectively short 92,450 and 42,906 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, funds are estimated to have bought 10,000 Wheat, 12,000 Corn and 17,000 Soybeans. Overall, the short position is still around 325,000 lots.
No big news on the weather side. The risk of freeze in the US plains is unlikely for the next 10 days. In France, winter crop are far in advance and in excellent condition. Spring is coming and it seems more like it every day: winter has not did any noticeable winter kill. Still a couple of weeks to stop hearing about freezing but for sure it’s going to move to dryness and heat!
Algeria OAIC is back for 50kT of Durum, April shipment.
Last week was clearly the currency week. Rebound on Euro and Pound Sterling thanks to Mario’s bazooka, and generally US dollar weakened, especially versus highly devaluated currencies: USDBRL was -4.71%, USDARS -2.32%, USDRUB -2.86,… EURUSD is starting the week on a softer note, anyway, it’s very unlikely all the problems of EU have been solved by the latest ECB move, and one can argue it’s actually the beginning of the end… Still on currency… Shocking! The Sun reported Her Majesty the Queen Elisabeth II is allegedly backing, in private, the Brexit. It’s been obviously denied by Buckingham Palace. Market is welcoming the news with skepticism anyway, it’s certainly possible she’s been caught in the past saying bad stuff about Europe (who hasn’t ever say so?) but assuming it would mean she’s backing the leaving camp is a quick shortcut, but hey, this is The Sun, what do you expect? Meanwhile, in the public opinion, there’s as much trust in David Cameron as in Boris Johnson and latest poll (Brexit is on the lead with 41% to leave, 40% to stay, the rest being undecided) are creating difficult position for everyone and a lot of embarrassment. Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish FM, has the worst position: she needs to be on the Cameron’s side because she fundamentally wants to be in the EU but polls shows that if UK vote for Brexit, Scotland would be now quite frankly up for independence. She probably secretly hopes UK to leave to trigger a new Scottish referendum. As well, Ireland would there be some opportunity to reunite the island if UK vote for Brexit but not Norther Ireland? GBPUSD is starting the week on a softer note. Brazilian Real is having a quiet start of the week despite the big demonstrations pushing for president’s resignation and protesting about the fact former president has been offered a cabinet position to protect him from a new arrest. Biggest currency move this morning is in Egypt, central bank devaluated in fact the EGP by more than 10% and said they are keen on moving to a “more flexible exchange rate regime”. FOMC meeting this week, no change expected, market is betting on a June move for a potential hike.
Oil is softer this morning, market is awaiting for the meeting later this months but without Iran participating to a freeze or a cut, a move would have to be pretty dramatic to have an actually restraining effect on global supply. NYMEX crude is back with a $37 handle while Brent is back below $40. Quite logically considering the correlation these days, gold is rebounding, approaching back the $1,260 per ounce. On freight, Baltic Dry Index BADI have continued to increase, posting a 34% recovery since its historical lows. It is still down -19% YTD though.
CBH rejected proposal from consortium led by GrainCorp as other parties have showed interest according to CBH.