Small down day yesterday, nothing major to report. In Chicago, Funds sold 1,000 Corn, 3,000 Soybeans and 1,000 Wheat yesterday. MATIF on its side rebounded. Night session is red across the board and MATIF is just ticking up.
NOPA crush was bearish but to be fair not as bearish as expected. 146.181M bushels of soybeans have been crushed in February, more or less +6.3M bushels above estimates. It’s a decline of -4.319M bushels months on months and a marginal decrease from last year (-0.819M bushels). This is probably not the data that has weighted the most on beans though, most probably it was more the stocks: they were well above market expectations to 1.792M labels (+0.2Mlb versus estimations). It’s an increase of +0.21Mlb from last months (the last month data was also revised by +0.056Mlb) and sharply higher last year (1.322Mlb). But interestingly enough, oil is resisting well compared to Soybeans.
USDA is feeding the bullish troll and scaremongering machine by warning the dryness and the cold snap over the week end could damage winter wheat. Market doesn’t seem to be that concerned just get, but keeping an eye on the drought monitor is a good idea: there are a few areas abnormally dry but so far, no massive panic. On the other side, Kansas wheat is 56% G/E, stable compared to last week, Texas and Oklahoma wheat improved by respectively +4% to 46% G/E and +1% to 67% G/E. Interestingly enough though, Oklahoma wheat is well behind schedule in terms of development, only 10% has reached the jointing stage compared to 14% last year and 24% for the average. Kansas is at 6% versus an average of 2% and Texas 20% versus 22%. On the South American weather, beneficial rains are forecasted but it doesn’t seem to slow down Brazilian soybeans harvest, just on time. FC Stone is wondering, especially considering the amount of short around, if the market is not underpricing the weather risk. We’ll see but as usual, there will be the winners and those who cry…
German coops sees German crop this year to 26.1MT, down -1.7% from last year. On the other side, rapeseed is pegged +0.7% higher than last year to 5MT. This is very early stage of predictions and spring rains will make the crops.
GASC is back, for a shipment late April. We’ll see if French wheat is daring showing up because there’s still a lot of confidence issues. On the other side, the recent rebound of Russian ruble is not making the Russian origin as competitive as it used to be. So it might be a particular case of which trader is eager to sell the most and considering the availability all around, there could be some good price showing up. To be noted, Bulgarian wheat has not been included just yet. Meanwhile, USDA attaché is expecting the next season’s imports to reach 11MT, this season has been revised down to 10.6MT from 11.5MT.
Iraq postponed than allegedly cancelled the tender and finally actually buy 100kT of Canadian wheat at $236.91 CNF FO. Two cargos from Argentina are charging to go to the US: 24kT of wheat and 25kT of soybean meal. As if US needed more in its balance sheet. UK wheat is working well, in January exports reached 309,640T but really, we’ll see in February: the GBP reached a 7 years low in February and it’s said that the price is very competitive and there was quite a lot of deals. Main markets were, in January, Spain and Netherlands. Japan is in for 149.6kT of food wheat, and Algeria tender deadline is today.
EURUSD is modestly down, keeping battling around 1.11, currently just below. Awaiting or the FOMC really. GBP is on its third day of correction after recovering for a couple of weeks as Brexit camp is having a short lead.
Oil is rebounding. Crude Oil with a $36 handle, Brent with a $39 handle. Freight Baltic Dry Index BADI was up again, perusing its recovery to 396.