It was all about the ‘spring wintery kill’ yesterday. Panic from some, skepticism for some other. It’s been cold but was there any damage? The impact is not known. Chicago Wheat closed well below its highs and somehow, market seems unimpressed. If the concern was real, a stronger rally would be expectable. This is a story to follow for sure. Wheat has had a weird weather pattern the last couple of month, however, the carry out are so big (and could become bigger in the next USDA WASDE) that there’s a bit of margin, a bit of buffer… Market closed in green territory across the board. Weather indeed then but also short covering, Soybeans moving to a long position could have been a catalyst for funds to trigger some covering, at least to take a breather and watch through the window the spring rains falling – or not. Funds bought 5,000 lots of Corn, 6,000 lots of Soybeans and 4,000 lots of Wheat.
MATIF was no exception and rebounded in line with US markets and lower EUR. Rebound is continuing in the US night session, MATIF is expected to tick higher, following US markets once again and the deep below 1.12 of EURUSD.
Export inspections were above expectations for wheat and corn, respectively to 468kT and 1,014kT. It’s about time to exceed depressed expectations, but it is still not enough and delay is increasing! Wheat need now to average 495kT for the next 10 weeks. Only 10 weeks to go indeed… Quarterly stock report could be very damaging… As per corn, now 1,058.4kT are needed for the next 23 weeks. The wind of lowering exports in the USDA WASDE report is blowing… Soybeans were still stronger that was needed, pace is expected to decrease at the end of the season but there’s probably no concern as long as the Chinese demand is there. Soybeans export inspections were 575kT.
China imported 4.508MT of soybeans in February, -1.149MT compared to January but +0.245MT compared to February 2015. So demand is still there indeed and 86.25% of soybeans imports are originating from the US (5.92% coming from Brazil and 5.26% from Argentina).
MARS March report is out. Nothing surprising really. Corn is expected to be better next year, yield is seen up +10.9% to 7.12T per hectare (the equivalent of 113.44 bushels per acre), las season, corn has suffered of dry conditions indeed. On the other hand, soft wheat, winter barley and rapeseed yields are seen down respectively -4.8%, -4.9% and -1.4%. It’s quite early to assess accurately but for sure it will be tough to match the last year which was overall very good indeed. Also sugar beets yield are seen surging +9.6%, the end of sugar quotas might boost yield and surfaces… The ‘very surprising’ complain of falling price would hit the news. Wait and see… Anyway, one should not be blinded by lower yields, MARS noted the conditions are ‘good for winter cereals’ and ‘crops strongly advanced in most of Europe due to mild weather’. The only concerns are the south of the Iberian peninsula (rain deficit) and the north of Adriatic see (rain surplus).
In India, an oilseed association sees the local rapeseed crop rising by +16% to 5.8MT. It could reduce vegetable oil imports. Meanwhile, the government insisted wheat crop will be between 92 and 93MT, while trade associations seem to think it’s unrealistic and call for a cut of the import duty. USDA, in the WASDE is pegging the crop to 86.53MT.
GASC is seeking rice. Interesting to follow to see if the face similar problems. Japan is seeking 126,190T of food wheat from USA, Canada and Australia. Ethiopia is seeking wheat also.
EURUSD, as said yesterday, is probably in a double top configuration, failing for the second time above 1.13. There are still a few issues in Europe and a strong rebound is tough to justify fundamentally…
On Freight, Baltic Dry Index BADI is approaching back to 400, +3 yesterday to 398. This is a +37.24% recovery, it is still -16.74% YTD. Oil rebounded above $40 and currently carries a $41 handle, and to be noticed, NYMEX Crude and ICE Brent are now flat. Market is hoping for a move in Doha next month, meanwhile, US Shale Gas operators are expected to come back to the market from the current levels.