This was a dull day. Corn and Wheat were kind of expected to wake up a bit nervously after having digested the Thursday reports and the Friday’s COT but market ended up just a few ticks lower. No major move. Soybeans were a bit more significantly down with roughly -5 cents. So a huge lack of excitement. Funds sold 5,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Wheat and were even on Corn. MATIF rebounded though. A bit of options delta adjustments and spreads, technical. Also market seems a bit lost with the EURUSD rebound.
Night session is quiet, Soybeans and Corn up, Wheat down. MATIF could tick higher in early trading thanks to lower EURUSD but it’s tough to see any durability on this rebound as the prospect of French crop is not alarming by any means and this is an euphemism…
Monday is the usual day of remainder about the big US export problem. Export inspections were as depressed as expected on wheat, to 318kT. This was below the 10 weeks average and obviously below the required pace (514.3kT) to fill the gap with USDA’s WASDE forecast. So with 9 weeks remaining, wheat need to average 538.8kT. There will be a potential 1.25MT to 2MT of US exports revisions in the WASDE, there’s no doubt about it. Will it be next week, not sure though. But this is to put in perspective with the 5MT ‘shortage’ of wheat due to lower plantings. These will be seriously offset… Corn was better than expected to 1,054kT, just enough what is needed to fill the gap but for the next 21 weeks, shipments need to totalize 22.3MT, telling it’s going to be challenging is an understatement… Soybeans were lower than expected to 205kT. FC Stone correctly said that it was ‘ugly’. Indeed that is! It’s fully expected that the pace of soybeans shipments will decrease at the end of the season (21 weeks to go), but here, they haven’t even met what was needed (207.9kT). Soybeans will need 208.1kT until the end of the season, it needs to be monitored but there’s no immediate concern.
Same little music on the US weather, some are still throwing the toys out of the pram and insisting on trying to maintain a bullish weather market. If freeze is now mostly out of the picture for wheat, some farmers are complaining about the wind and the drought. Once again, it’s the best drought monitor since a few years. Some corn farmers are complaining about planting delays and say corn yield will be cut… Cutting yield of a not even planted crop. Nice! Once again, there’s no real impact on yield before early may, so that’s’ plenty of time and US farmers have well demonstrated that they can work around the clock and with their machinery, planting can be very quick. The biggest John Deere planter can plant 48 rows simultaneously (the infamous DB120 48 Row 30, that’s a 36.576 meters toolbar) and can seed 100 acres per hour (well for the price of $345,000). So all these weather worries are a tentative of snake charming the bears.
On Freight, Baltic Dry Index BADI is now 7 points away from full YTD recovery. Meanwhile, oil is lower, price decay is correlated to the hopes of a production freeze fading. Iran exports jumped again in March, reaching more than 2M barrels per day. Saudi Arabia has been clear, they will only freeze the production of Iran does. Iran doesn’t want. So unless there’s a huge surprise, seeing prices going back to $30 is not unrealistic. NYMEX Crude is down, with a $35 handle while ICE Brent is also down, with a $37 handle. Gold is shaky these days. Back around $1,225 in early trading after yesterday’s dip.
Pretty quiet on the international tenders. GASC have postponed its rice tender until today, it will be interesting to see if there’s an outcome this time. Tunisia is seeking 42,000T of Durum. Jordan deadline of the usual 100,000T of hard wheat is today, while Iraq deadline for 50,000T of wheat is on the 10th of April.
No major movement in the EURUSD. However, there could be a bit of unrest in Europe. It has started in Iceland where a demonstration gathered 10% of the voters to call for the Prime Minister resignation. Why? The so called Panama Leaks. It seems that Europe is concerned much more than the US it may trigger some demonstrations and protestations in Europe. Meanwhile, not sure it’s going to increase the confidence of British people in their politics class as the name of the David Cameron’s dad is appearing. The Brexit vote is turning to a referendum pro or against the EU, pro or against the current political class, pro and against the national propaganda from media with a lot of scaremongering,.. And so far, they are against as the leave camp has a sizable lead… So technical rebound fueled by US weak macro but euro is not sorted fundamentally by any means… Slightly softer this morning, approaching back 1.1350.