Not a massively exciting day yesterday, Soybeans and Wheat finished down -2ish cents and Corn up +2ish cents. Thin volume also on the MATIF, closing down around -€1.5. Funds were flat on Soybeans and Wheat and bought 6,000 lots of Corn. On the weather side, the frost in the US and Canada has not damaged crops, ‘damage’ is mostly cosmetic. A bit of reseeding will be needed but this is not widespread by any means.
The three main event of the day were NOPA Crush, US Export Inspections and Crop Report. US Export inspections showed that despite what USDA WASDE is showing, there might still be a problem on Wheat. Wheat shipments reached just 367.9kT last week, they need 651.6kT for the next three weeks. It’s going to be a close call indeed! Corn shipments were strong on their side, to 1,110.6kT and need to be 1,085.6kT for the next 16 weeks. Finally Soybeans seasonality is definitely on. Only 194.6KT were shipped, increasing the average needed for the next 16 weeks to 264.9kT. No concern just yet but worth keeping an eye on it. NOPA Crush was just below the average of expectations to 147.6M bushels, down 9.1M bushels from March 2016 and down -2.8M bushels from April last year. Finally, on the Crop Report, the big unknown was the acreage switch. Ain’t happening just yet! Corn plantings increased by +11% last week, to reach 75%, 5% in front of the 5 year average. 14% of the Soybeans have been planted last week to reach 36%, +4% in advance compared to the 5 year average. Finally, Spring Wheat is planted at 89% (+12% versus last week) and is 25% in advance compared to the 5 year average. So in other words, no sign of switching, it is likely to be marginal as every farmer has probably order most of their seeds already. To be noted, although they are in advance compared to the 5 year average, plantings are slightly behind last year. Winter Wheat slightly deteriorated, 62% is G/E (unchanged from last week) and 8% is P/VP (+1% from last week). This is still far better from last year (45% of G/E and 19% of P/VP). Winter Wheat is in advance, 68% has headed versus 65% last year and 56% on the 5 year average.
Anyway, Informa is seeing more Soybeans and less Corn: they increase their US acreage estimate to 83M acres, this is 0.7M acres above the USDA WASDE. They forecast Corn acreage at 93.4M acres, lower -0.2M acres from USDA. So this is far from significant.
Night session was strong on Soybeans: +4 cents. Corn and Wheat were very quiet and closed -1 cents and +0.50 cents. MATIF is down so far today but also, volumes are very thin/
Iraq is extending again the tender’s deadline to tomorrow. South Korea’s NOFI bought 65,000T of feed wheat at $186.70 CNF and cancels the corn and soybean meal tender. Japan is seeking 121,357T of food wheat. Jordan made no purchase in the tender to buy wheat.
Baltic Dry Index BADI is rebounding: the freight index is now back to 643. No significant move on oil today, NYMEX Crude is below $47 and ICE Brent is above. Also no big move on gold, still stuck around the $1,275.
EURUSUD shows no sign of interest today, barely changed, just above 1.13.