Thursday was a Soybeans driven day, they closed once again sharply down in excess of -50 cents per bushels, while Corn finished barley down and Wheat between -3 to -5 cents down. On Soybeans, the curve is still in backwardation, this would be surprising to this shape sustaining if further decline was happening. MATIF Milling Wheat rebounded, diverging from US markets as the market is reacting to the prospect of a lower crop (around 35MT according to Agritel and Stratégie Grains). But the lower yields won’t make the quality any better and the competition from Black Sea is going to be quite high and France will have a very complicated marketing year for sure.
Yesterday, funds sold 17,000 lots of Soybeans, 1,250 lots of Wheat and were even on Corn.
MATIF continued rebounding today, mostly following US rebound. Indeed, reversal on the US side with Soybeans up 30 cents or so, Corn up 7 cents and Wheat in excess of +10 cents. A lot of technical buying there, it’s been tough for longs and new short took the opportunity of Friday to take some profit.
The US Drought Monitor has showed the situation is not improving as much as expected, especially considering the recent rain. The South especially is now quite concerning with a severe drought but the main corn and soybeans parts have so far sufficient soil moisture and the situation is not alarming by any means.
US export sales were stronger than expected for wheat, the start of the season has to be strong considering how competitive will be the next year on the international scene, especially on the feed segment. 825.3kT were committed. Corn was lower than expected to 813kT while Soybeans were as strong as expected to 1.223MT. Export inspections will be surely monitored as they have to pace up for the next 9 weeks. On the other side of the pond, yesterday, EU cleared 145kT of soft wheat on the last marketing year, making a total of 31.294MT, reaching the USDA’s forecast while 209kT were cleared on the first installment of the new marketing year.
CONAB cut its Brazilian crop estimates, pegging it to 69.14MT. It’s a harsh slash, -7.08MT from their previous estimates.
EURUSD is around 1.1050 while GBPUSD is still below 1.29 on a multi decade low. Oil is in the mid $40’s with NYMEC Crude having a $45 handle and ICE Brent a $46 handle. Gold has retreated and is currently trading just above $1,355. A bit of profit taking.