Yesterday finished red across the board with no massive conviction, a few cents across the board, no double digit for this unconvincing session. It seems like market just want to play with 1,000 on Soybeans, 4,000 on Wheat and maybe 300 on Corn, who knows? It is still about the weather but the more a stress is waiting to come, the more likely the yields could increase, especially in a succession of sun, heat and rain episode. Funds obviously followed the mood and the trend, selling 10,000 Corn, 5,000 Soybeans and 3,000 Wheat. MATIF Wheat took a well-deserved breather, rebounding by +€2, French farmers unions is announcing one of the worst crop since the World War II. There is still a lot of panic and final number is expected anxiously.
Night session is the last day of July, this could be about position adjustment and liquidation. Soybeans are leading the way down in excess of -6 cents while Corn and Wheat are more quiet with respectively -2 cents and -3 cents. MATIF is back on the downside, losing most of the yesterday’s gains.
The International Grain Council bumped up by 14MT its corn crop estimates to 1,017MT, being above the billion would now be a huge disappointment. Wheat is now pegged to 735MT, +6MT from their previous estimates. Soybeans are now pegged to 321MT (+1MT from their previous estimates). So the French problem is very specific and nicely compensated. Talking about France, harvest is 41% completed on wheat, far behind last year (68%) and as per the ratigs, they are falling again, only 40% of wheat is G/E, -2% from last week.
On US Exports sales, what is deemed to happen seems to start, old crop cancellations… US Exports sales were negative indeed for the old crop of beans (-1,400T) and only reached a total of 676.8kT. Corn and Wheat were as expected to respectively 915.3kT and 506.1kT. On the other side of the pond, much lower activity this week. EU only cleared 413kT of soft wheat export licenses, 121kT on barley and cleared 161kT of corn import licenses.
GASC bought two cargoes, one of Russian and one of Romanian wheat, totalizing 120,000T. The price paid was an average of $177.17 CNF. There was once again a good number of offer, but as expected, French wheat was nowhere to be seen. Only Russian, Ukrainian and Romanian wheat were offered. Egypt has now reserves until early February. On the corn tender, India once again only received one offer in the tender to buy 150,000T.
US unemployment claims were higher than expected to 266k and today is expected the advance quarterly GDP. If market after the FOMC till hope a Q4 rate hike, the inflation is still a worry and EURUSD has bounced and is currently trading just below 1.11. Baltic Dry Index is struggling again and fell to 655 (-14) on lower demand on Panamax and Capesize. Meanwhile, oil is approaching $40, this will be for sure a tough support. NYMEX Crude is above $40.50 while ICE Brent is just above $42. Gold is still just above $1,330.