Orphan Monday without US markets, without crop report, without export inspections… And the latest could be very interesting as we’ll know the final number of the marketing year for soybeans and corn. So this was a pretty quiet Monday to be honest. Well, MATIF U6 fell -€3.50 but this is only position adjustment before the expiry next Monday, Z6 was much quieter and fell only a couple of cents (-€0.50), so not much really to talk about.
On Friday Informa projected US yield to 174.8 and 49.5 bushels per acre (obviously respectively for corn and beans). They see the corn crop at 388.64MT and the soybean crop at 112.32MT. A bit like Pro Farmer, there’s a bit of weirdness here and it raises questions… USDA is pegging the corn crop at 384.92MT with a yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. Informa is -0.17% lower on the yield but forecast a production +0.97% above the USDA: so it’s not rocket science, harvested area have to be bigger, by +1.14%. That’s pretty significant, almost 1M acres. USDA is pegging the soybean crop at 110.50 with a yield of 48.9 bushels per acre. Informa is +1.23% higher on the yield and forecast production +1.65% above the USDA: so it’s not rocket science either, harvested area have to be bigger, by +0.42%. This is a more decent 337k acres. So next USDA WASDE will be particularly interesting. Market has integrated that soybean crop will be excellent. On corn, everyone agrees about the goodness but not about its extent and this can be a market mover.
On the US weather side, there’s not much deviation from seasons’ average: a bit drier here, a bit wetter there, but mostly favourable. In Europe, the only point of concern is the French corn, it lacked of rains, will France be hit by a double poor crop?
Night session started very quietly, Soybeans are marginally up, Corn is marginally down, and Wheat a couple of cents down. MATIF is expected mostly flat so far.
In Egypt, the Ministry of Health confirmed he’s in agreement with the Agriculture Minister and the Quarantine Authority: he doesn’t want either any trace of ergot in imported wheat. Algeria’s tender deadline is tomorrow 10am local time, offer must be valid for 32 hours. Nobody want the Chinese corn! China failed to sell any of their ageing stock in their auction.
No big move either on currencies, EURUSD is still trading around 1.1150 with no real trend. The market is expecting an imminent rate hike, a whatever the result, market might move on the 21st of September! Either disappointed, either surprised, but a neutral FOMC is not expected by any means. Main data will be the Manufacturing ISM later today, expected at -0.1 to 55.4. As per the Brexit, political observers said that Teresa May, the British PM, has tried to be reassuring but it said to be empty words with real no plans and some say the British government has no clue nor competence and maybe neither a plan or the willing to leave the EU… ‘Will Brexit actually happen?’ is still a question… Meanwhile GBPUSD still above 1.33.