Quite an uneventful day in comparison with the last couple of days as Soybeans moved up +1.5 cent. Meanwhile, Corn and Wheat are keeping gradually being weaker, without great conviction but little by little and here we are, Wheat as a $3 handle. Indeed, closing down -3.75 cents, Wheat closed 2 ticks below 400 cents. Corn was also down -3 cents. MATIF very dull closed flat while CME EU closed a couple of ticks up only. It really smells like it’s the end of the year! In Chicago, funds were on the sell side but with very low appetite: the sold 3,000 Corn, 500 Soybeans and 1,000 Wheat.
Not a lot to talk about really, even weather talks are getting a bit more quiet, it really seems that at this time of the year there are other priorities and market just do not care. On the weather though, it seems a bit cold in Russia but here also, snow cover seems more than enough to protect efficiently winter crops.
Night session is weaker on Soybeans (-3.25 cents) and Wheat (-1.50) while Corn is marginally up, a tick or so.
In EU, export stats are becoming tough to read since they modified their reporting method. If last reporting week it’s supposed to have exported 246,000T of soft wheat, the season aggregation gas increased by 770,000T, but the week earlier seasonal total had been revised to 11.7MT from 11.13MT. Data is losing some consistency.
Philippines private importers had a tender deadline yesterday to purchase 25,000T of Australian wheat. No result known just yet. Japan is back with the SBS tender (basically acting as a central purchase for privates) seeking 6,700T of feed wheat.
If US Ethanol production was down 4,000 barrels per day to 1.04M barrels and stocks were down as a consequence, they actually went down less than the production, in other words, demand was even lower. Stocks went down only 16,000 barrels to 19.06M barrels. Once again, US Crude Oil Inventory expectations were off by a mile. Market was expecting a withdrawal of -2.4M barrels and inventories actually build up by +2.3M barrels. So from close to $54, NYMEX crude logically corrected and is currently trading below $52.50 and ICE Brent still at a $2 premium. On Freight, Baltic Dry Index BADI has rebounded +12 to 926, Stronger demand on larger size vessels has driven the index up. However, it was partially offset by lower demand on mid-size vessels.
Not much stats expected the next few days. Final quarterly Canadian GDP today (+3.3%), Final UK quarterly GDP tomorrow (+0.5%) and Canadian GDP month on month (+0.1%). US CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, US Unemployment Claims next Thursday, Chicago PMI next Friday. That’s pretty much until the end of the year, so there should not be any extreme movement and a profit taking retracement could come on currencies. EURUSD is rebounding since yesterday and now trades above 1.425, BGPUSD is trading around 1.2350.