CBOT (as well as Kansas, Minneapolis, ICE Canola) was observing New Year’s Day public holiday yesterday so market was closed: first session of 2017 will be today and night session is starting pretty quietly with Soybeans mostly flat (just ticking down on the two first expiries) and Wheat and Corn pursuing their Friday’s movement on the upside but with a shy +1 cents to +2 cents. MATIF was opened yesterday but sometimes it better stay closed: it was the lowest volume on Milling Wheat H7 since 4 months with only 1,765 lots traded. It ended flat in an absolutely eventless session. MATIF Corn started the year on a positive note with +€1.50 while Rapeseed was also a tad higher with +€1.25. MATIF Wheat started the day +€1.00 up.
Market is entering an important month for South American soybeans as they are starting to bloom and pod, so rains are going to be under high scrutiny. And there is still less rain than usual, soil are drying in some key parts, especially on the north of Brazil and on the South of Argentina. But on the other parts, there are actually more precipitation than usual so it could delay the crops planting and harvesting. However, as it stands, there’s no issue just yet, market is just being cautious. Talking about Argentina, the soybeans export tax will be cut by -12% to 18% by 2020. Government said it will cut the tax by -0.5% every month in 2018 and 2019. It could trigger more planting.
Algeria’s OAIC is back seeking milling wheat. Egypt’s GASC is seeing raw sugar. Jordan mad no purchase on their tender to buy wheat.
US export sales published on Friday were showing good numbers: 568.8k on wheat, 957.6k on corn and 974.3k on soybeans. Export commitments are all in good shape but there is still some concerns on the great amount of soybeans being shipped, preventing corn and wheat export to pace up.
EURUSD is back trading around 1.04, actually testing the 1.03 handle after the end of year dead cat bounce, despite decent Manufacturing PMI’s. Oil is trading up as we’ll soon supposed to know, or to see, if there’s actual effect on supply in the implementation of the OPEC deal: NYMEX Crude is trading around $55 and ICE Brent still have a $3 premium.