Magnet, $10 level on Soybeans is a pure technical magnet. Shamble is still on about where it’s too dry in South America, where it’s too wet… To be fair, the main concern is the wet areas in Argentina. Soybeans ended the day up +9 cents. Meanwhile there was nothing much exciting on Corn and Wheat. The lack of movement of Corn is really suggesting the Soybeans move is pretty technical while on Wheat a bit of pragmatic scepticism about the winter kill drama is starting to prevail. Corn was down -1.75 cent on the close yesterday while Wheat ended down -0.50 cent. Kansas finished just ticking down while Minneapolis was up +1.50 cents. Minneapolis still carries a huge premium to Kansas and Chicago (respectively 123 cents and 134.50 cents on the close) and therefore, Kansas ended at 11.50 cents premium to Chicago. In Europe, the winter kill worries are easing (well, was there actually any worries?) and MATIF moved down -€1.25 while CME EU moved down -€1.00. To be noted, K7 on CME EU is consistently trading more than 100 lots per day, so this is a pretty good sign. In Chicago funds sold 4,000 lots of Corn and 1,000 lots of Wheat and where obviously on the buy side of Soybeans, for an estimated 4,000 lots.
Night session is softer across the board. Soybeans are down -2.25 cents, Corn -1.50 cent, Wheat -3.75 cent. MATIF is just a tick down.
France AgriMer raised its third country export estimates for soft wheat to 4.8MT, +0.1MT from previous estimates while exports inside EU are unchanged (6.1MT). Exports towards third countries would be down -63% from the previous crop, French ports have been really quiet this season. South Korea is seeking for 60,000T of non-GMO soybeans. Turkey is seeking a total of 99,000T of EU wheat.
Following the passing of former president, Iran national feed importer has postponed to an unspecified date their tender to buy 180,000T of barley and 120,000T of corn. On the SBS tender, Japan booked 28,220T of feed wheat.
The bullish hype on oil is fading as NYMEX Crude was trading with a $50 handle (it’s now just one tick above $51). There is huge doubts about compliance of some OPEC countries to the deal (mainly Iraq and Iran) and the US could increase the production taking profit of a new profitability thanks to higher prices. ICE Brent still has a $3 premium and is trading just above $54. Baltic Dry Index BADI keeps going down following the freefall of Capesize index (-9.80% today) and the Panamax rebound (+4.93%) is not enough to offset significantly: BADI is down -3.46% on the day, -32 to 894.
UK Manufacturing Production was much better than expected (+1.3% month on month, versus +0.6% expected), so still, overall, there’s no proven impact of the Brexit referendum result. But process hasn’t formally started yet, this will be for sure challenging. But it’s a strong US dollar day anyway, EURUSD and GBPUSD are both on the downside, EURUSD trading back down just below 1.05 and GBPUSD trading down below 1.21.