Red across the board led by Soybeans, -12 cents on the close. USDA WASDE reality seems to be kicking off as the Argentinian issue should be mostly compensated by Brazil production, expected to be risen. On top of this, logistic issues are not worsening and a decent flow of soybeans are reaching the Brazilian ports. Corn followed down in a lower extent with -2.50 cents as well as Wheat, as snow and rain are coming back in the US (but the South is still dry and windy): Chicago ended down -2 cents, Kansas -1.50 cents and Minneapolis -2.75 cents. On the other side of the pond, both MATIF and CME EU went down -€1.50. In Chicago, funds sold 7,000 Corn, 6,500 Soybeans and 1,000 Wheat. Being the cut-off of the CFTC’s COT, market will look for funds to be seller of 3,500 lots of Corn, 7,000 lots of Soybeans and buyer of 6,500 lots of Wheat.
Night session is red across the board again, should be a couple of quiet and technical days before the USDA WASDE tomorrow. Soybeans are down -1.25 cent, Wheat down -2.75 cents and Corn down -1.75 cent. MATIF is sideways, K7 is ticking up, U7 is ticking down, nothing to get excited about. CME EU is a couple of ticks down in very low volumes.
In Europe Copa-Cogeca sees EU soft wheat back on track to 142.4MT, roughly in line with the European Commission (143MT). However, at this stage, it’s wishful thinking as winter is barely over. However, this is encouraging in France as 93% of the soft wheat is rated G/E.
Egypt rejected 3 cargoes, 2 from Russia, and one from Argentina. The latter is rerouted to Morocco. Turkey got a lowest offer at $225.78 CNF on its tender to buy 130,000T of EU wheat. Japan passes on the SBS tender to buy feed wheat and barley. They only received one offer of 550T, the tender is not popular, supplier are keener to offer direct as it would optimize their margin. The tender is a good idea from Japan’s perspective for sure but the execution of the plan is tricky and is not fooling international traders. Jordan bought 50,000T of hard wheat at around $203 CNF. South Korea’s Kocopia bought 60,000T of US corn at $199.52 CNF FO.
On Oil, US Crude Oil inventories are expected again to show a build-up of 1.1M… This would be the 9th week in a row stocks are raising. The Baker Hughes World Wide Rig Count is at the highest since November 2015, Canadian rigs are back into action as drilling is increasing in Alberta (there are 50% more rigs in activity in Canada compared to last year) and US oil rig count rose for the 7th straight week to 609… Supply glut is not over and to reach durably $60, some action on the supply or a quick increase in the demand will be needed… Especially with US Shale Gas operators outputting as much as they can. NYMEX Crude is trading below $52.75 and ICE Brent with a $2.85 premium.
The currency event of the day will certainly be the UK budget, first budget since the UK voted to leave the European Union. GBPUSD is trading lower, below 1.2150. EURUSD is also trading lower, more marginally, but still above 1.0550.