Same story is going on, pretty dull actually, nothing new. Rains should be good enough in the next few days over the US winter wheat and it’s logically putting some pressure on Wheat: Chicago ended down -4.25 cents, Kansas down -5.75 cents, and Minneapolis, as usual (but for how long?) resisted well closing down only -0.50 cent. Pure technical session on Soybeans, playing with the $10 level and closing a tick below with -1.75 cent. Finally, on Corn, there are fear of very heavy prospective corn acreage, the consensus is around 90M acres, but there are some fears it could reach up to 93M acres, while some other actually think the switch to soybean will be heavy and figure could be as little as 86M acres. However, the risk seems to be on the higher side 89M acres to 90M acres is probably well priced in, so should it be above, this will bring a lot of pressure…. Corn closed down -2.50 cents. Funds sold 6,500 Corn, 3,000 Wheat and were even in Soybeans. MATIF was no exception, and moved down -€2.25, CME EU -€3.00.

 

Night session was softer on Soybeans (-3.75 cents) and Corn (just ticked down) while wheat was sideways: ticking up n Chicago, -0.50 cent in Kansas and +3.25 Cents in Minneapolis. MATIF is flattish while CME EU is again sliding, -€3.00. Premium to MATIF on K is now only +€2.50: a key to a normalisation of the market is to quote around the quality discount it should have.

 

US weekly export sales were pretty good: 568.3kT for wheat, 1.47MT for corn and 818.1kT for soybeans. Morocco is locally seeking for 132,000T of soft wheat. Japan bought 117,689T of food wheat from US, Canada and Australia. Jordan was successful in buying 50,000T of hard wheat at $203 CNF.

 

US Crude Oil Inventories were feared… And the fears were justified. A build-up of +1.9M barrels was expected and it was too conservative, this was actually +5M barrels! That’s 47M barrels more since the beginning of the year, and stock has reached 533.1M barrels. However, after a sell off and touching $47.01, NYMEX Crude recovered and is trading back above $48. Similarly, ICE Brent visited below $50 for the first time since November 2016 but is trading bac above $50.75. On Ethanol it was on the other side, bullish, production was down -1,000 barrels per day (to 1.04M barrels per day) but more demand took inventories down by -171,000 barrels to 22.6M barrels. On Freight, Baltic Dry Index BADI seems to be willing to take a breather, printing -10 to 1,190. This was driven by larger vessel segments and offset notably by Panamax Index, up +18 to 1,119 after a 8 session dip.

 

Not much move in the currencies but the calm before the storm? Brexit triggering, French elections, German elections… Busy Q2-2016 it will be for sure. UK retail sales were +1.4% a full percent above expectations, US unemployment claims were greater than expected to 258k. EURUSD is trading around 1.0775 and GBPUSD around 1.25.

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