Soybeans found very little support after a good start yesterday and finally kept on digging, closing -7.75 cents down. And it was more or less the theme of the day, price rejection and after starting indeed on decent rebounds, market closed significantly below their highs: Wheat ended with just a little +1.25 cent on the board while spreads had a bad day as Kansas was down -1.50 cent and Minneapolis -3.25 cent. Even Corn, despite closing a bit more higher with +3.50 cents, rejected violently the highs of the session (K7 was trading +7.5 cents at some point early in the session). A very technical session, digesting USDA data and COT data. On the other side of the pond, MATIF closed a couple of ticks up while CME EU was flat. In Chicago, funds bought 15,000 Corn, 3,000 Wheat and sold 6,500 Soybeans.
Soybeans tried to recover during the night session and ended higher +2.50 cents. Corn was a couple of ticks higher on the close and Wheat +1.75 cent in Chicago, +3 cents in Kansas and +2 cents in Minneapolis. MATIF is down -€1 and CME EU a couple of ticks down on the front months but curve is on fire, contango is increasing. Good and encouraging sign, especially with U7 -€2.50 below MATIF and -€2.75 for Z7, reflecting the expected quality discount.
US Exports Inspections were pretty good: corn 1,475.3kT, soybeans 620.7kT, wheat 559.6kT. With the last good few weeks, corn is confirming the positive momentum and 59% of the target is completed, versus 54% on the average and 41% last year. It will provide a bit of buffer in case of a seasonal slowdown: 22 weeks to go and 1,053.9kT needed on average per week. Soybeans needs now an average of 371.88kT over the same period. Really, the slowdown has to be massive in order not to exceed the target. Indeed, after last week shipments, 85% of the target is completed, versus 83% for the long term average and 79% last year. The only touchy subject remains wheat as there are only 9 weeks to go and 675.1kT now needed per week on average and be -6% behind the typical pace is not encouraging. However, one has to bear in mind wheat inspections are usually a bit less than 1MT short of the exports due to unaccounted export business.
US Winter wheat crop is rated 51% G/E, this was 59% last year. It was not as bad as expected to be honest. It has been raining so market will expect to see a better Drought Monitor. Market will now gently focus its interest to conditions and plantings, weekly crop reports will be back indeed!
Algeria’s OAIC is seeking for 50,000T of soft wheat, Japan is seeking for 120,507T of food wheat. Meanwhile Iraq has cancelled its wheat tender, market participants are unconvinced about payment terms and the origin flexibility, this basically prevent them to offer.
UK Construction PMI was a tad lower than anticipated to 52.2 (52.5 estimated). GBPUSD is down back below 1.2450. EURUSD us still trading above 1.0650 despite being a bit softer.