Dead cat bounce, pause or bottomed? Big questions on Soybeans as they closed rebounding sharply +6.50 cents. But the closed well of from their highs (trading at +11 cents at some point during the session) and the next USDA WASDE, next week, could make the South American balance sheet heavier again. So some farmers might really reconsider their switch from corn to soybeans, and acreage drama is probably not over with last Friday’s report! Anyway, quite technical, profit taking on the new shorts. Corn was up +1.75 cents but it seems to struggle confirming the rebound of the last Friday’s report, a clear lack of oomph. Wheat was still messy on the spreads and despite good rains, Chicago rebounded by +2.75 cents. But Kansas was up +3.25 cents and Minneapolis -2.75 cents, the premium being back below $1: 94.75 cents to Chicago and 99.50 cents to Kansas. In Chicago, funds bought 6,000 Corn, 10,000 Soybeans and 4,000 Wheat. On the other side of the pond, flat MATIF, CME EU ticking up.
Night session is mixed with no major move: Soybeans are ticking up, Corn is ticking sown and Wheat is generally softer by no more than -1 cents. MATIF and CME EU are expected flat so far. There’s not much news going on, but soon crop reports will give a bit of weekly fundamentals excitement and one more month to wait for the first estimates of the new crop on the USDA WASDE.
Jordan has cancelled the barley tender, it was kind of expected, running both tenders at the same time was slightly optimistic… Still pending, Algeria’s OAIC on wheat and Japan food wheat tender.
US Crude Oil inventories showed a build-up again! They were expected to be on the downside for -100k barrels, but they were up again indeed by +1.6M barrels, bringing the year to date sum to 49.5M barrels. Price action was slightly disappointing, NYMEX Crude is only trading back around $51. ICE Brent is trading at $3.25 premium. On Freight, with -6.42%, Capesize Index dragged Baltic Dry Index lower by -32 to 1,223. Panamax Index was only down -6 to 1,371.
ISM Non-Manufacturing was quite disappointing yesterday, failing to reach the expectations of 57: actual was 55.2. German Factory Orders were up +3.4% month on month, just marginally lower than expected. US Unemployment Claims expected today at 251k. EURUSD is trading just below 1.0675 and GBPUSD just above 1.2475.