Quiet and mixed Friday as it’s school holidays or about to be in the US and Europe. A couple of ticks up for Soybeans, but they are failing to post any substantial rebound recently. Corn was down -1.25 cent, not impressed by planting delay scaremongering. Wheat was all about spreading with Chicago up +0.75 cent, Kansas up +1.75 cent and Minneapolis down -3.50 cent. Funds sold 8,000 Corn and bought 1,000 Soybeans and 2,000 Wheat. On the other side of the pond, MATIF was down a couple of ticks and CME EU was flat.
This was a calmer week. Soy complex continued to feel the pressure of increased acreage and never ending growing supply but was down no more than half a percent (Soybeans -0.42%, SoyOil, -0.50%, SoyMeal -0.32%), ICE Canola and NATIF Rapeseed lived their own life with respectively +0.27% and +0.82% in US dollar. Corn struggled to confirm the rebound and finally printed -1.30% over the week (MATIF Corn was -2.30% in US dollar). Wheat spreads were still very messy as Chicago was down -0.58% over the week, Kansas up +0.30% and Minneapolis -2.99%. Minneapolis premium closed the week below $1 as premium to Kansas was 96.50 cents and 94,25 cents over Chicago. Kansas is at a 2.25 cents discount compared to Chicago. There is something wrong to see Minneapolis almost a dollar higher than Chicago but Kansas at discount of Chicago, a lot of cleaning will be operated when next crop is in. MATIF Wheat, CME EU and London LIFFE were all down, respectively -1.33%,-0.72% and -0.74% in US dollars. US dollar was generally stronger last week, EURUSD -0.57%, GBPUSD -1.38%, USDCAD +0.70% and AUDUSD -1.74%.
One of the question on the CFTC COT was about the length of funds on Soybeans. Are they going to be still long? They are! Just! If funds sold more than estimated (37,194 lots while only 20,500 lots were expected), they managed to stay long for 722 lots. However, on the next one, tough to see them long as they are expected to have been seller of 22,000 lots from Wednesday to Friday. Not much surprise on Wheat, more or less as expected. Funds increased their short position by 2,684 lots to 138,834 lots. Funds are expected to have bought 4,000 lots from Wednesday to Friday. However, on Corn, quite a surprise: market wase expected funds to be seller of 22,000 lots over the week, they actually reduced their short position to 150,287 lots, buying 5,225 lots. Frome Wednesday to Friday, they are expected to continue the short covering movement, by 21,500 lots.
Night session is finally sowing some decent strength on Soybeans but it’s only the start! They are up +4.50 cents. Corn and Wheat (Chicago and Minneapolis) are just ticking down, Only Kansas tries to be really weker (-1.75 cent).
Libya is delaying its tender on wheat, durum and corn. Algeria has purchased up to 570,000T of wheat, always tough to know what is really going on as no official result is published. Prices are said to be in the $198 CNF region.
Bad set of data on Friday for the UK as Manufacturing Production was down -0.1% (expected up +0.3%), the goods trade balance was more negative than expected to -£12.5. Construction Output and Industrial Production were also down respectively -1.7% and -0.7% month on month. Unsurprisingly, the British Pound corrected on Friday and GBPUSD closed below 1.24, small rebound today and the 1.24 level is attractive, should it be as a support or a resistance. Still on Friday NFP were lower than expected by quite a bit to 98k (174k expected) but Unemployment Rate was better by 2 ticks to 4.5%. No major macro stat expected today, Sentix Investor Confidence is expected at 2-.1 later today. EURUSD is trading above 1.0575.