Soybeans and Corn rebounded yesterday, respectively +10.25 cents and +2.25 cents. A bit of short covering after the COT, helped by a weaker US dollar. Nothing much more to say actually. Corn planting aren’t progressing as much as fancied (a bit of wishful thinking there) but on the other side, South American rains are seen as being favourable. On the other side, there’s wheat and it seems that it’s not scared by the amount of short and stared the week sideways and closed on a lower note. Chicago closed down -2.50 cents, Kansas -2.75 cents and Minneapolis -5 cents. Quality is good for winter wheat and rain makes grain! On the other side of the pond, MATIF and CME EU just ticked up. In Chicago, funds bought 8,000 Corn, 8,000 Soybeans and sold 3,500 Wheat.

 

Mondays mean crop report and inspections! Winter wheat conditions are unchanged from one week to another, 54% G/E and 13% P/VP. If it is not as good as last year (it was an outstanding respective 59% and 8%), it is historically very decent as the 10 year average is 48% of G/E and 22% of P/VP.  The current rains are seen to be beneficial but too much could become an issue as 32% is now headed (in advance compared to last year, 24% and compared to the 5 year average, 23%), some sun will be needed soon to avoid diseases. On the spring wheat side 5% has emerged. The plantings were feared. Soybeans have started, with a 6% completion, slightly earlier than last year, no real delay there. Corn planting progressed to 17% (6% last week), showing once again that US farmers are not kidding, when they plant, they go for it (11% in a week, they can do better though). If it’s behind last year (28%), it is a little percent below the long term average so there is no big deal there, an anyway, it is still the start, the 25%/75% range is usually going very quick. The only delay is spring wheat, 22% only is planted (+9% from last week) but the last 5 years (average is 34%) were planted quite early so there’s a little bias there (last year was 40%), so a mean reversion is not necessarily bad (10 year average is 26%). And a bit more switch to corn and soybeans could come. On the Export inspections, same pattern as usual: very decent corn thanks to soybean (relative) weakness. Corn shipments rebounded after two relatively weaker weeks, to 1,453.5kT, most probably, from next week, the average weekly split needed will be below 1MT (it is currently 1,009.3kT with 19 weeks to go). The seasonal advance is now comfortable, 66% of the target is completed (48% last year, 61% on average). Soybean shipments are smaller and smaller as only 207kT headed to China, total inspected shipment were 634.9kT. It is still more or less twice as much as needed on average but more negative momentum will come. There is still 6.201MT to ship in 9 weeks. There is seasonal buffer as only 11% of the target remains to complete while it was 19% last year and 14% last year. Wheat shipments were honourable to 612.5kT but still shy of the weekly required pace. With 6 weeks to go, this is 684.1kT needed per week. But one has to bear in mind there’s probably a bit more than 0.5MT of wheat exports that is not going through the inspection system. There’s a little delay in terms of seasonality as 85% of the target is completed while it was 86% last year and 87% on average at this time of the year.

 

Night session is back on the weaker side across the board, Soybeans closed down -4.50 cents, Corn -2 cents and Wheat -2.25 cents in Chicago. Kansas is flat, barely ticking down on the curve and Minneapolis sideways. But main spread move is on MATIF, K7 expiry is approaching and K7 is up +€1.25 while U7 is down -€0.50… At every expiry the same ones are taking profit of huge spread move, and it’s only the start…

 

Iraq is back, seeking wheat, as usual, US, Canada and Australia are specified of origins, but once, Black Sea was showed. And terms are making the traders cold feet. Algeria is there also on Durum. Tunisia is there for milling wheat.

 

Oil is down, back close to just above $49, US is adding rigs, OPEC will struggle to see the light at the end of the tunnel, even with a deal extension, another cut is needed. Especially considering there are some chatters about the fact Saudi Arabia might be a bit delusional with its valuation of Aramco. Authorities says it worth $2 trillion, well this might be ‘just’ 33% overvalued as Wall Street Journal reported (citing leaked internal documents). So on a 5% IPO, that would be $25b less… So some revenue will kind of miss in their budget… ICE Brent is still trading with a $2.40 premium. On Freight, it’s getting softer, slowly but surely. Baltic Dry Index BADI is down -16 today to 1,154 and this time, mostly driven by Panamax Index (down -4.06% today).

 

EURUSD is still in a happy mood, reacting still well to the French elections. However, market has to be careful, parliament elections will be more important considering the conditions. But also, more and more are fearing that voters won’t be bothered going to vote and the far right candidate could win. Indeed, in theory, this is a possible scenario, but it is still classified as a Black Swan event. But recent history has showed that what is not supposed to happen may happen! Brexit, Trump,…

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