A bit nervous… Funds sold 1,000 Corn and 3,000 Wheat and where on the buy side of Soybeans for 6,000 lots. It means, on the next CFTC COT, market will expect to see funds on the sell side for Corn and Wheat (respectively 9,000 lots and 12,500 lots) and on the buy side of Soybeans (for 4,000 lots),… The aggregated short would therefore be close to 375,000 lots, it could be explosive if there’s a huge bullish surprise on the tonight’s WASDE, especially considering there will be the first estimation of the 17/18 crop. Soybeans ended up +9.25 cents yesterday, Corn just a couple of ticks up and Wheat was down -4 cents in Chicago, -5.50 cents in Kansas and -3.75 cents in Minneapolis. On the other side of the pond, MATIF was up +€0.75 and CME EU +€0.25.

 

Night session was very dull obviously, waiting for the main event of the day later, 8pm Dubai time. Soybeans were a tick down, Corn +1.25 cent, Wheat +1.75 cents. MATIF is just ticking up and CME EU is flat.

 

Japan received no offer in the SBS feed wheat and barley tender. Algeria tender results should leak in a couple of hours.

 

US Crude Oil Inventories are expected to be down -2M barrels later today. Interesting comment from OPEC, they think that US shale gas is basically irrelevant on a long term perspective as they expect demand to excess the increased supply brought by shale gas. So far they are proven awfully wrong and some say they need a reality check. However, they are ready to do “whatever it takes” to normalize the market. But just extending the current deal seems a bit light in that perspective… NYMEX Crude is trading below $46.50 and ICE Brent with a $3 premium.

 

No major move on the currencies, EURUSD is trading around 1.0875 and GBPUSD around 1.2950. Emmanuel Macron will be officially French president on Sunday.

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