Weak start of the week apart from Soybeans that manage to keep their head out of the water. Indeed, they were up +2.25 cents on the close, while Corn went down -3.25 cents and Wheat was the attraction of the day: -9.50 cents in Chicago, -10.75 cents in Kansas, -6.50 cents in Minneapolis. Funds probably reinstated a bit of short position on Wheat as CFTC’s COT showed they had cut their position (by 16,746 lots) quite unexpectedly. Funds sold 6,000 lots indeed this Monday, as well as 7,000 lots of Corn but were on the buy side of Soybeans for 3,500 lots. Wheat market is really in price discovery mode and has basically no clue where to go and is waiting for a bit more clues on the northern hemisphere crops. We shall know pretty soon for sure. On the other side of the pond, similar pattern: MATIF was down -€2.00 as well as CME EU.
Night session. Is red across the board but without anything huge: Soybeans are down a couple of ticks, Corn down -1.25 cent and Wheat is a couple of ticks down in Chicago, -2.75 cents in Kansas and -2.25 cents in Minneapolis.
Soybeans managed to be in the green but NOPA crush was pretty bearish, 139.134M bushels were crushed in April (more or less 6.5M bushels below expectations), down -9.10% month on month and down -5.74% from April last year. And they were up also despite a very weak US Export Inspections, only 281.5kT of Soybeans were inspected, 16 weeks to go and 356kT needed per week on average. Finally, soybeans planting were not massively bullish either at 18% of the beans have been planted in a week, reaching 32% jus 2% shy from last year but spot on the average.
But talking about inspections, Corn were pretty good, 1,395.9kt, finally bringing the weekly average needed for the rest of the season below 1M to 987.2kT. Wheat was still a bit shy of the required pace with 691.2kT but more or less, we’ll be there in 3 weeks if we reintegrate the non-inspected exported wheat.
Back to the crop report, wow! US farmers are not joking when they are planting: 24% of the corn have been planted in a week, now the completion is at 71%, only 2% shy from last year and 1% above the average. Wheat condition have slightly deteriorated with 51% of G/E ratings (-2% week on week) and 7% P/VP rated (+2% week on week). Market seems to think the worst has been avoided, especially considering all the recent flood, freeze and snow talks.
EURUSD is reproaching 1.10 as the political risk in Europe is seen diminishing: pro-EU new French president plus the fact that the Angela Merkel party has been comforted in local elections is giving reinsurance to investors. Oil is still on a rally mode as OPEC, with Russia, said the deal will be extended into 2018. But without a weaker demand, this is unlikely to change anything. And supply from US Shale Gas is not set to decrease, so one can argue that it is a non-event and a short term rebound. A structural change is needed and if price is not durably higher than $60 at the end of the year, more action will be needed as higher oil is a prerequisite to Saudi Aramco IPO. NYMEX Crude is trading around $49.00 and ICE Brent with a $3 premium