Strong start of the week with Soybeans up +10.50 cents, Corn up +5.75 cents, Wheat up +8.75 cents in Chicago, +7.25 cents in Kansas and +10.25 cents in Minneapolis with funds buying 10,500 lots of Corn, 6,500 lots of Soybeans and 4,500 lots of Wheat. Funds most probably were pushed to buy back a bit of what they sold last week as the CFTC COT was quite significantly in sell side, more than anticipated and on a USDA WASDE week, especially considering the circumstances, a bit of risk off can be safe.
Spring wheat conditions improved a tad with 32% G/E (+1% from last week) and P/VP unchanged to 43%. But there’s nothing to be really happy about, and looking at last year number is still painful (respectively 68% and 8%): a nasty reminder that quality is crap. Corn conditions worsened a tad, -1% of G/E to 60% while P/VP remained unchanged to 13% (last year respectively 74% and 7%). As well, for those who forgot (or tried to), quality will be fare from the last year’s. Soybeans improved a little bit on the both side of the spectrum: +1% of G/E to 60% and -1% of P/VP to 12% (once again, for the masochists, it also hurts to compare to last year: 72% and 7% respectively. This was not supposed to be bullish as such as the moves are not really drastic but market just received a kind remainder and is still quite nervous. Winter wheat harvest is almost completed (94%), as it should, while spring wheat harvest really paced up last week and is now 24% completed.
Export inspections were also released: 586.1kT for wheat 2.5kT of barley 979.0kT for corn and 685.7kT of soybeans. Obviously this is a strong start of the year for wheat as there’s a bit of a stampede: 21% of the export target has already been inspected (last year 17% and on average 18%). But for the seasons that are about to finish, this will be interesting: corn target is 95% completed; it was 86% last year and 90% on average. Soybeans target is 96% completed, spot on the average but in advance compared to last year (90%). US exports will be for sur to be monitored in the next couple of USDA WASDE!
On the other side of the pond, MATIF was softer, -€1.25, CME EU flat, and London Feed -£0.75. In France, the ministry is confident yields are very encouraging and the Ministry is now pegging the crop to 36.8MT (+0.6MT compared to their previous estimates). The corn crop is also seen bigger at 12.8MT, as well as the rapeseed crop (5.2MT). A nice recovery from last year…
China sold 10,864 of its local wheat reserve. Nobody wants it basically as more than 3MT of ageing stock was offered. They also sold 919T of imported wheat from their reserve… Chinese private buyers are also reselling soybeans (520kT) at a loss… Glut and credit issues are luring in China. Well at least they are no defaulting! Taiwan’s MFIG is seeking for 130,000T of corn. Bahrain is seeking for 25,000T of milling wheat.
Night session is green across the board with Soybeans up +8 cents, Corn +2 cents and Wheat more or less +4 cents in every US markets. MATIF has also opened on a higher note trading at +€0.50, London Feed is higher +£0.50 and CME EU is flat.
Nothing major on the macro side. French trade balance displayed a lower deficit than expected to -€4.7b (-€5.1b expected). EURUSD is trading higher this morning, now above 1.18. Later during the night, Chinese CPI and PPI are respectively expected to 1.5% and 5.6%.