Bis repetita. A day starting on the upside but failing again to perform and ended down, apart from Soybeans to be fair. Indeed, if they were up +8.50 cents, everything else was down: -2 cents for Corn, -5.25 cents for Wheat in Chicago and Kansas, -3.25 cents for Minneapolis Wheat. It is tough to ignore the S&D but the fact market is torn with quality issues is creating volatility, but for sure, there will be a lot of wheat available this season. On the other side of the pond, MATIF was digesting the GASC pain and some fears about where all this French wheat will go are starting to rise. For sure, operators are going to sell anything they can to Maghreb but if Egypt is once again leaving French wheat aside, there will be a need to find new destinations… Not even thinking about the event if Algeria is solving its Black Sea grain aversion (should French prices remain aggressive, they most probably won’t in a short term perspective). So MATIF fell -€2.25. Some say it cannot go further down. However, this is still something like $183 and the dollar big objective on the downside for FOB prices is usually $170, so there’s still a bit of margin there, it could come from EURUSD collapsing… Or MATIF! CME EU ticked down, London Feed closed down -£0.45.
Funds sold 5,000 Wheat and 6,000 Corn while they bought 6,000 Soybeans.
Night session is on the upside but it is so far quite shy, typical Friday! Soybeans are up +2 cents, Corn +0.75 cent, and +2 cents on Wheat in Chicago, +1.50 cent in Kansas and +4.25 cents in Minneapolis. MATIF opened lower and trades -€0.50 to -€1.00, CME EU is following in a similar extent while London Feed is flat, still sleeping probably!
US Drought Monitor was a tad better on face value as surfaces totally free of drought increased from 70.23% to 71.91% and D2-D4 decreased from 5.38% to 5.33%. But Iowa is getting worse (Pro Farmer Tour will for sure give an idea on how the corn look like as it is the biggest state for Corn) and situation in Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota is still very preoccupying.
In the UK, DEFRA sees a record of spring barley sowing for next season, +15% to 478,000 hectares, mainly explained by a reduction of -3% of wheat plantings (to 1.64M hectares). Winter barley and rapeseed surfaces are also both seen down -4% to respectively 361,000 hectares and 522,000 hectares. There is a trend indeed: UK farmers seem to struggle a bit with black-grass and are keener, as a consequence, to grow more spring crops.
Better retail sales (by a tick) than expected in the UK last month to +0.3%, however, previous was revised from +0.6% to +0.3%. No surprise on Eurozone final CPI and Core CPI with respectively +1.3% and +1.2%. US Unemployment Claims were better than expected (232k versus 240k expected) and Philly Fed was also better than expected to 18.9 (18.3 expected). EURUSD is trading above 1.1725, GBPUSD above 1.2875 and GBPEUR around 1.0975.