Thursday was finally a day we could say the market was up without too much ambiguity apart from the Corn rebound that was limited to a tick or so. But Soybeans were up +6.25 cents, and Wheat was up between something like +5 cents (Chicago) to +10 cents (Minneapolis) with Kansas right in the middle. MATIF however just rebounded a couple of ticks, and LIFFE Feed Wheat just ticked up. Nothing fancy then. Today market was softer on Soybeans (-1.50 cents) and Corn (-3.50 cents) and sideways on Wheat: +0.50 cents in Chicago, -1.75 cents in Kansas while Minneapolis curve was trading sideways on the bell (flat on front month, ticking down on Z7 and the curve higher in excess of +3 cents). MATIF ended the week higher with +€1, CME EU +€3.25 and London Feed +£1.
Funds ended the week by selling 7,000 Corn (4,000 also yesterday), buying 6,000 Soybeans (buying 4,000 yesterday) and buying 4,000 Wheat (1,000 also yesterday). And CFTC COT showed twhat was expected! A treble short on Wheat, Corn and Soybeans! Funds are now short 17,073 Corn, 66,751 Wheat and 23, 394 Soybeans, they sold respectively 56,875 lots, 32,515 lots and 8,995 lots, they sold much more than expected! We’ll see how market is waking up on Sunday night!
It’s said that Algeria bought 590,000T of Wheat, this would be very surprising not to see French wheat, they are desperate to sell… Tunisia bought 75,000T of Wheat also.
Farm Journal MidWest Crop Tour is reaching its end. It’s always sad after such a few days of fun, hype and excitement! Final Iowa corn yield is seen at 179.79, -4.46% from their observation last year and -11.43% versus current USDA. Minnesota, is pegged at 191.54, 5.06% above their observation last year but -0.76% compared to current USDA WASDE. In other words, with the yields on the 7 states surveyed, technically the crop is losing -15.99MT just on those states (69.21% of the production). Their final US national yield is 167.1 bushels per acre (USDA is at 169.5). This is -1.82% compared to their 2016 yield and -1.42% compared to the current USDA WASDE. Last year, they underestimated the yield by -2.5%, if it were to happen again, this would mean a yield of 171.42… Not going to happen for sure! Their national yield implies a loss of -5.09MT of corn. How can you publish yields for 7 stats implying a loss of -15.99MT and publish a national yield only cutting the crop by -5.09MT? It would mean the other states, 30.79% of the production, are bringing back 10.90MT… Black box methodology there!
My model says 166.13, -7.15MT cut on the crop. This is only data model trying to unbiased their crop tour data, just for fun!
On Soybeans, final 3×3 pod counts in Iowa is 1,092.82, no big change compared to west only: -10.73% from last year. Minnesota pod count is 1,019.96, -7.91% from last year. So a bad picture overall: the 7 stats surveyed are accounting for 61.45% of the production, and the pod count are on (weighted) average lower -6% compared to last year. Their yield is 48.5, -1.62% compared to their yield las year, yield that was underestimate by -5.37% (correcting the bias by the same percentage would give 51.25). This yield estimate is -1.82% below USDA. So, -6% of pod counts on 61.45% of the states give a national yield only down -1.82%. Anyway, this would be -2.17MT disappearing from the production.
My model says 47.26, -5.16MT on the crop. This is only data model trying to unbiased their crop tour data, just for fun!
Answer pretty soon, and bring on Farm Journal MidWest Crop Tour 2018! Despite the question of the relevance, it is always an interesting time, to follow or to participate! That’s all (for this ear) folks!