A bit of a rebound with a bit of nervousness especially on wheat. We are at a stage of the season where all the bearish news are potentially already in and it could be a dull period where the market is jumping on any bullish catalyst as the boredom is pushing traders to position on very single little news. Current catalysts are obviously USDA Quarterly Stock Report and then October WASDE, Australia and South America. The 17MT figure in Australia is coming over and over, however, the source seems to be strongly and consistently bullish biased and we should be closer to 20MT. However, market movements will be fundamentally quite irrelevant until the report, it’s more about position adjustment. Wheat ended up +7.75 cents in Chicago, +6.75 cents in Kansas and +3.75 cents in Minneapolis. Soybeans and Corn were lagging a bit with respectively +2 cents and +1.75 cents. On the other side of the pond MATIF was up a couple of ticks, CME EU +€1 and London Feed +£0.45.
In Chicago, funds bought 5,000 Corn, 3,000 Soybeans and 5,000 Wheat.
Night session is reverting: Soybeans are down -6 cents, Corn -1.25 cent and Wheat marginally down a few ticks across the markets. MATIF is trading flattish in early trading while London Feed is up +£0.55.
The poppy seed saga is back into the Egyptian headlines. A third of a Romanian wheat cargo has been discharged and will be moved in another facility with a smaller sieve. Sure there could be a Northcote Parkinson law about it: the smaller you sieve, well… You’ll still find something! Saudi’s SAGO is seeking 540,000T of barley. China sold 31,637 of 5 years old wheat of its reserve, failing again to attract significant bids as 887kT were offered.
US Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected withdrawal last week with -1.8M barrels. NYMEC Crude is trading up in the mid $52’s and ICE Brent at a $6 premium. There’s obviously a great deal of geopolitical concerns these days (North Korea, Venezuela) and also, the November meeting of OPEC is approaching so it will feed a lot of speculation. Talking about OPEC, Uganda will seek to join it in 2 years’ time when oil production is starting significantly.
US Final GDP should be +3% later today, Unemployment Claims expected at 269k. EURUSD is trading above 1.1750, GBPUSD below 1.3375 and EURGBP below 1.1375, still very strong thanks to not too bad recent macro data feeding the speculation of a rate hike of the BoE in November: it was 2 versus 7 at the last meeting on the 14th of September, this is a lot of people to convince… Also, MP Theresa May skilfully kicking the Brexit can 2 years down the road with now more on more politicians calling for a second Brexit referendum could make the feeling grow that Brexit is a like the Bogeyman under the bed: everyone talk about him but he’s never actually be seen…