Red across the board in a pure digestion of the stock report. Indeed, a lack of bearishness doesn’t necessarily mean it is bullish and situation is similar, stocks are heavy and when they are decreasing, it’s slower than the production. Far from being bullish all other things equal! The USDA WASDE could be much more important as US soybean and corn yields could give a direction as well as the southern hemisphere and maybe FSU.
Soybeans moved down -11 cents, Corn -3.75 cents and Wheat -3.50 cents in Chicago and Kansas and -12.25 cents in Minneapolis. The Minneapolis premium is now back ‘down’ to 166.75 cents to Chicago and 172.25 cents to Kansas. Kansas is at 5.50 cents discount to Chicago. For sure, since months, Wheat spreads are messy! In Chicago, funds sold 7,500 Corn, 5,500 Soybeans and 3,000 Wheat. On the other side of the Pond, nothing massively convincing as MATIF closed down a couple of ticks down while London Feed traded sideways and finally closed down -£0.10.
GASC might however give a reminder that at the price, French wheat will struggle make its way to Egypt! Indeed, after a couple of softer days, it is not a surprise to see GASC coming for wheat for first half of November. Also, EU traders are getting a bit cold feet on the poppy seed shambles… Worst nightmare, a cumulated ergot and poppy seed drama! Anyway, Russian wheat should show again it is still at the moment a Russian game. Still on the GASC, they received offers on the vegetable oil: $812 CNF for the soyoil and $802.92 for the sunflower oil. Tunisia is also seeking wheat, durum actually, 75,000T, and feed barley, 25,000T. Iraq is seeking 50,000T of wheat, as usual from US, Canada and Australia through a tenders, but it is unclear if there’s some deals happening behind the scene and the involvement – or not – of Black Sea wheat is also very unclear.
Night session is still down: -2.50 cent on Soybeans -1.75 cent on Corn. Wheat is ticking sideways, no clear movement. MATIF is just ticking down, the rest of the EU markets are flat.
Improvement of US corn! +2% G/E to 63% and -1% P/VP to 12%. It is still worse than last year (respectively 73% and 8%) but a welcomed improvement as harvest is now going on. 6% has been harvested last week, reaching 17%, still slightly behind usual but nothing major and it is still the start, full pace mode not yet on. Soybeans conditions were unchanged, 60% GE and 12% P/VP. Actually, there’s a tiny improvement as E rated are up +1% to 12% and G rated down -1% to 48%. Soybeans harvest is 22% completed (12% last week, just behind average, no issue either). Winter wheat is 36% planted, 12% has emerged.
US export inspections were all over the place: lower than expected for soybeans (894.3kT), better for wheat (692.0kT) and as expected for corn (782.3kT). Soybeans are down from a very good last week so seems like some kind of smoothing but for sure, Chinese demand was switching to the US but it has to stay quite pacey at this start of this season. Corn is running well behind last year, it is still very early but for sure market will keep an eay on it. Nothing really to say about wheat.
EURUSD is trading above 1.1725, GBPUSD above 1.3250 and GBPEUR cross rate just below 1.13. UK Construction PMI was off estimates to 48.1 and yesterday Manufacturing PMI was also lower than expected to 55.9. EU Employment rate was a tick higher than expected to 9.1% while ISM Manufacturing was better to 60.