When you get away from the screen for a few days, you feel like the new kid on the block: what happened?!? Not a lot basically, a rebound on Monday followed by a subsequent gentle retracement. And yesterday was softer indeed, Soybeans ended down -4.25 cents, Corn a couple of ticks down and Wheat -3.25 cents in Chicago, -5.25 cents in Kansas and -1.0 cents in Minneapolis. On the other side of the pond MATIF Wheat was actually up +€0.75 cents (probably helped by a softer EURUSD), CME EU flat and London Feed -£1.40. Interesting to see London Feed under pressure while cash basis had increase, it looks like it could be a question of time for the after effect… Cash basis rose because farmers were reluctant to sell but at some point, the pressure of the market going down could bring a capitulation and a more decent selling movement, and after all, you need money for Christmas and the tax bill in January, so every man and his dog will have the same timing. Anyway, back in Chicago, funds sold 4,000 lots of Corn, 6,000 lots of Soybeans and 3,000 lots of Wheat.
Night session is typical Friday, all over the place with no major trend yet. Soybeans are ticking up, Corn -1.00 cents, Wheat -2.00 cents. MATIF is expected to tick down.
France Agrimer said 76% of the French corn is harvested and 63% of the soft wheat is planted.
Turkey bought 110,000T of wheat, a bit less than the 150,000T initially thought. Taiwan Flour Mills are seeking 86,000T of US wheat and MFIG, still in Taiwan, booked 65,000T of Argie corn. Jordan is back again seeking 100,000T of wheat (they actually managed to buy 50,000T this week). Saudi Arabia’s SAGO is seeking 475,000T of wheat, German is the best origin for them. Algeria had booked 250,000T of durum, while Ethiopia has been offered $299.06 delivered in inland silos for 400,000T, story to follow. China keeps failing getting rid of its ageing stock of grains, nobody bid on their soybeans auction.
US quarterly GDP could however bring some excitement to the day, expected at +2.6%… Interesting to see that UK got super excited with +0.4% instead of +0.3% and the rate hike is now said to be unavoidable… This might just be another Central Bank mistake but that wold not be the first one and won’t be the last one. Meanwhile, ECB did not move its rate, as expected, while the asset purchased was reduced by 50% to €30b… But was expanded virtually sine die! So very sort tapering that is not expected to end abruptly in September 2018. EURUSD is trading at 1.1625, GBPUSD at 1.3075 and GBPEUR at 1.1250.