Dull Friday as most of the US offices doors remained closed on Veteran’s Day. Soybeans up +2.00 cents, Corn up +2.00 cents, Wheat +2.50 cents in Chicago, +4.25 cents in Kansas and -0.50 cents in Minneapolis. MATIF was up a tick, CME EU flat and London Feed -£0.60. In Chicago, funds bought across the board: 5,000 lots of Corn, 3,500 lots of Soybeans and 4,000 lots of Wheat.
Quite interesting week with a USDA WASDE in the middle of it. Soybeans managed to close the week up for one single tick (+0.03%), SoyOil +0.19% and SoyOil +1.13%. It is still quite high considering the S&D and the resilience of the US yield, some are still sceptic but soon harvest will be behind us and it will become increasingly difficult to challenge. Corn moved down -1.36%, mainly impacted by the lower US yield, MATIF Corn moved up +0.80% in US dollar (EURUSD was up +0.48%). Wheat USDA WASDE was mostly neutral but it managed to rebound on short covering: Chicago was up +1.35%, +1.52% in Kansas, and +3.64% in Minneapolis. The Minneapolis premium on Z7 ended the week at 214.25 cents to Kansas and 216.00 cents to Chicago. MATIF Wheat was however down in US dollar by -0.45% (-0.93% in euro) as the competition from Russia seems to increase report after reports, where will it stop? CME EU was up +0.48% in US dollar and London Feed +0.53% in US dollar (-0.34% in British Pounds as GBPUSD was up +0.87%, the market is in limbos to expensive to import feed, too expensive to export milling). ICE Canola was up +0.31% in US dollar (USDCAD was down -0.63% over the week) and MATIF Rapeseed +0.75% in euro.
Oil was up +1.98% over the week on NYMEX Crude while Brent was up +2.34%. Market should be shaky still for a couple of weeks until the OPEC meeting is done and dusted, nothing much is really expected, apart from rhetoric that may make the market think the supply glut is ending, even if it’s not happening. OPEC is over. Saudi needs to fly their own but obviously they are reluctant to do so, keen on sharing the pain but other countries have not the same priorities than in 1960… So there will be exemptions and cheating. Oil is starting the week trading marginally down.
COT will be published tonight as administrations were of work for Veteran’s day. Funds will be expected to be buyer of 7,500 lots of Wheat and 13,000 lots of Soybeans while they will be expected to be seller of 4,000 lots of Corn. It will mess the USDA WASDE fun as the CFTC COT cut-off is Tuesday, from Wednesday to Friday, funds will be expected to be seller of 19,000 lots of Soybeans, 6,000 lots of Corn and buyer of 8500 lots of Wheat.
Night session is softer across the board: -0.75 cent on Soybeans, -0.50 cent on Corn and -3.50 cents on Chicago Wheat (-3.75 cents in Kansas, -3 cents in Minneapolis). MATIF is a couple of ticks down while CME EU and London Feed are flat.
Jordan is seeking 100,000T of wheat and 100,000T of barley, Iran is seeking 200,000of barley and 200,000T of corn, Turkey is seeking 108,000 of corn. South Korea made no purchase on Friday, they were seeking for 65,000T of Corn. Egypt GASC is seeking soybean oil and sunflower oil.
Chinese Industrial Production in expected later today at +6.3%, Fixed Asset Investments to +7.3% and retail sales +10.5%. Busy day tomorrow: UK CPI is expected at +3.1%, German Preliminary Quarterly GDP to +0.6%, Eurozone flash Quarterly GDP to +0.6%, German ZEW to 29.3 and US PPI to +0.1%. Stronger US dollar to start the week, EURUSD is now trading below 1.1650, GBPUSD around 1.3075 and GBPEUR around 1.1235.