Another harmful day for Soybeans and Corn, ending down -6.50 cents and -4.75 cents respectively with funds selling respectively 6,000 lots and 13,000 lots. In other words, market will expect to see the funds’ long to have halved on Soybeans on the next CFTC COT. Indeed, they were long 46,738 lots on the last COT and they are expected to have sold 21,500 lots. Meanwhile position on Corn will be expected to increase the short by 39,000 lots. On the other side, Wheat resisted pretty well ending up +3.75 cents in Chicago (+0.50 cent in Kansas, -4.25 cents in Minneapolis). Funds bought 3,500 lots in Chicago yesterday, reducing the short over the COT week by 6,500 lots. But it seems like it’s just communicating vessels: Wheat is up only because the other are down, but tough to find a single fundamental to imagine at the moment a decent long term rebound. In EU, MATIF Wheat ticked up, CME EU was flat and London Feed moved up +£0.45.
Night session is reverting on Soybeans, +4.75 cents while Corn and Wheat re quiet: a couple of ticks up for Corn, a couple of ticks down for Wheat in Chicago and Kansas. Minneapolis is rebounding, +2.75 cents. The premium closed yesterday at 201 cents above both Kansas and Chicago. This is in the long term unsustainable but hey, it’s been a long time it is sustaining!
In the UK, Vivergo has seen its ethanol margin decreasing and decided to bring forward a scheduled maintenance. It brings a bit of pressure on the market and on the cash basis.
In Egypt GASC bought 32,500T of sunflower oil and 10,000T of soybean oil. And the ergot saga is back. A court banned the import of wheat containing any trace of ergot, in other words, back to zero tolerance policy. The Agriculture Minister is awaiting for the cabinet decision and insisted by the meantime it is business as usual. No ergot, no poppy seed,… What next? Sure they can find something else! They have reserves until early April. South Korean NOFI is seeking 207,000T of corn, MFG is seeking 70,000T of corn also, meanwhile, Kocopia bought 60,000T of US corn. Bangladesh is seeking for 50,000T of wheat.
Inflation a tick lower than expected a +3% in the UK did not help GBPUSD to move away from the range we’re stuck in since early October. It is currently trading above 1.3175. But nice rebound of the EURUSD despite positive US data. US PPI was better than expected to +0.4%. But better German GDP won the arm wrestle, EURUSD is now trading around 1.1825.