Strong Friday across the board. Wheat was mainly technical, back in the range after it tested earlier the sub 410 cents levels, but also on fears of fresh damages on the Australian crop as after the drought came the storms, and it is also a bit cold in Russia and dry in the US (well this is cold winter and it is happening every year so far). Chicago ended up +5.25 cents, +6 cents for Kansas and +9.25 cents for Minneapolis. Soybeans and Corn ended up respectively +8.50 cents and +8.50 cents on La Niña fears in South-America and pacey US exports (USDA reported a 942,900T sale on Thursday). Funds bought 8,000 Corn, 8,000 Soybeans and 4,000 Wheat.

 

Night session is still strong across the board, Soybeans up +10.25 cents, Conr +1.00 cents and Wheat +4.25 cents in Chicago (+3.25 cents in Kansas, +1.25 cent in Minneapolis). MATIF is up +€1.00, CME EU is flat and London Feed up +£0.60.

 

CFTC COT showed funds sold 14,108 Wheat on the week ending on Tuesday (Reuters estimated 11,500 lots), increasing their short position to 122,774 lots. Funds bought more Soybeans than expected (4,500 lots according to Reuters) increasing their long position by 11,518 lots to 31,662 lots. Finally, Corn was the oddity of the week: Reuters was betting on selling 21,000 lots, funds actually bought 13,703 lots, decreasing their short position to a still big 196,763 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, they bought 9,000 Wheat, 27,000 Corn and 1,500 Soybeans.

 

A sideways week. The only market in agreement were ICE Canola and MATIF Rapeseed, respectively down -0.71% and -1.62% in US dollar (EURUSD moved down -0.34% and USDCAD moved down -0.25%). Elsewhere, this was a mess, like a spaghetti dish: Soybeans were more or less flat (+0.10%), SoyMeal +1.36% and SoyOil -1.00%. On Corn, CBOT Corn was +0.73% and MATIF Corn -0.51% in US dollar. On Wheat, Chicago was down -0.30%, but Kansas up +1.45%, but Minneapolis down -2.09% (ending the week at a premium of 190 cents to Kansas and 196 cents to Chicago), but MATIF wheat was up +0.76% in US dollar, bu ME EU was down -0.34% in US dollar, and – final ‘but’ – London Feed was up +0.84% in US dollar (GBPUSD was up +1.01%). Quite messy indeed!

 

Saudi’s SAGO bought 495,000T of hard wheat between $226.94 and $235.57 CNF. Jordan is jealous of Saudi’s success, so they are back seeking 100,000T of wheat. Turkey is also seeking for wheat, 84,000T. Last week, Iraq bought 100,000T of US and Australian wheat while Algeria’s OAIC booked 570,000T of milling wheat between $208.75 and $210.50 CNF.

 

Theresa May will have a fight – I mean a lunch – with Jean-Claude Junker. Whether the talks will proceed seems to be up to Ireland and the border question, EU will be behind Ireland and will support a veto. GBPUSD is up +0.30% this morning (trading around 1.3515) after rebounding sharply last week, while GBPEUR is also trading up just above 1.1400. Euro Sentix Investor Confidence was lower than expected to 31.1, UK Construction PMI was higher than expected to 53.1.

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