Market lives in wishful thinking, whishing, hoping, that something is wrong, but fundamental news are reminding again and again that it is not the case, at least yet. The prophet of doom was this time Statisiques Canada, raising their wheat and canola crop to respectively 29.984MT and 27.130MT. USDA is at 27MT for wheat, so it wil surely compensate the cut of Australia, the hope of a bullish wheat report is vanishing… Wheat moved down sharply (H8 contracts now), -7.50 cents in Chicago, -8.00 cents in Kansas, -12.50 cents in Minneapolis. On the other side of the pond, Cocereal also raised up its estimates, on EU soft wheat production, pegging it to 142MT, +6.5MT year on year (all wheat crop is seen at +6.02MT year on year in the WASDE), as well as corn (59.8MT, versus 59.59MT in the WASDE). Their rapeseed crop estimates is down by a tick, now pegged to 21.9MT. MATIF (H8) was only down tick, CME EU is flat (paralytic unfortunately) while London Feed (F8) was down -£1.05. Corn and Soybeans followed down, respectively -1.00 cents (H8) and -5.75 cents (F8). Soybeans are heavily technical, fighting around the magical $10 number. Is this justified fundamentally? This is another story…
In Chicago, funds sold 4,000 lots of Corn, 9,000 lots of Soybeans and 4,500 lots of wheat. We’ll now enter in a position adjusting pattern as Monday will be the day the fundamentals matters: USDA WASDE. It will be highly difficult continue to cast doubts on US corn and soybeans yields.
Quiet night session with no much happening. Soybeans are still down, back just below $10 in a technical fighting mode. Corn a few ticks up, Wheat a couple of cents down in Chicago, a tick up in Kansas and +1.50 cent in Minneapolis. European market are expected flat so far.
Bangladesh booked 50,000T of wheat at $245.34. Jordan also! They booked 100,000T of hard wheat at $224.50 and they are motivated by the success and are up for 100,000T of feed barley.
Brexit shambles is continuing and tough to see where it is going. EU do not want to set a precedent with invisible borders between members and non-members, Republic of Ireland and Norther Ireland do not want any border, Norther Ireland don’t want any different deal, if there was a different deal, Wales and Scotland will show their appetite to have also a different deal. The equation seems highly complicated! We’ll know more by the end of the day. But currencies aren’t too much bothered about it, US dollar is generally stronger, but it’s a very limited dip for EURUSD, trading just below 1.18, very limited also for GBPUSD, trading just above 1.3375. GBPEUR cross rate is trading just below 1.1350. ADP NFP was marginally higher than expected to 190k, US Crude Oil Inventories were down more than expected to -5.9M barrels (market could not care less and corrected down to $56 dollar per barrel, US Shale Gas will be the trouble maker). US Unemployment Claims expected at 239k today.