A quiet session on Friday with Soybeans up +2.25 cents, Corn ticking up, Wheat down -3.25 cents in Chicago, -2.25 cents in Kansas and -1 cent in Minneapolis (premium ended to 196 cents to Chicago and 189.25 cents to Kansas). Funds bought 2,500 lots of Soybeans, 5,000 lots of Corn and sold 2,500 lots of Wheat. On the other side of the pond, MATIF was up a couple of ticks, CME EU flat flat flat, and London Feed +£0.40. Traders are definitely back to school today!
And night session is red across the board already, -3.50 cents on Soybeans, -1 cent on Corn and -4 cents on Wheat. European markets are expected to follow the trend.
First week of the year generally on the bull side, all across the markets actually as Dow Jones reached a record level, settling above 25,000 for the first time. Agricultural commodities were fuelled by winter weather market, oil by geopolitics (Iran, North Korea),… Soybeans moved up +1.02%, SoyMeal+1.70%, SoyOil +1.72%. Canola was up more significantly, +3.84% in US Dollar on ICE (USDCAD down -1.35%) and MATIF Rapeseed was up +3.29% in US dollar (EURUSD was up +0.27%). Corn moved up +0.14% in Chicago and +1.22% in US dollar on MATIF. Wheat was up +0.88% in Chicago, +2.40% in Kansas, +1.95% in Minneapolis, +1.53% in US dollar on MATIF, +0.70% for London Feed (with GBPUSD up +0.41% on the week). CME EU was flat, it’s a question of time for the death certificate to be published. NYMEX Crude was up +1.69% and ICE Brent +1.12%.
For the CFTC COT, Reuters was right about the direction, but funds sold more Soybeans than expected and bought more Corn and Wheat than expected. Funds decreased their short on Wheat by 17,557 lots (6,500 expected) to 128,178 lots, decreased their short on Corn by 8,084 lots (1,000 expected) to 198,576 lots and increased their short on Soybeans by 16,415 lots (6,500 expected) to 85,506 lots. This is an aggregated 412,260 lots anyway, quite significant. From Wednesday to Frida, a reverse situation is expected, funds were seen selling 2,000 lots of Wheat, 3,500 lots of Corn and buying 2,500 lots of Soybeans.
Jordan is seeking 20,000T of wheat bran, Iran 180,000T of barley. It seems like states agencies are also back from holidays.
Good German Retail Sales on Friday, +2.3%, higher that the market bet (+1%), EU CPI was as expected to +1.4%. NFP was lower than expected to 148k (190k expected) and US Unemployment Rate was as expected to 4.1%. Finally, ISM Non-Manufacturing was als a miss, 55.9 versus 57.6 expected. EURUSD is starting the week on a weaker note, still fighting around the 1.20 level, technically sticky, currently trading around 1.1990. GBPUSD is following, trading down around 1.3525. No big stats expected today.