If Soybeans moved down -3.00 cents, the rest moved up, largely technically, traders will be cleaning their positions to be ready for the Friday’s USDA WASDE. Corn ended up +1.75 cents, Wheat up +4.50 cents in Chicago, +5.75 cents in Kansas and +5.25 cents in Minneapolis. On the other side of the Pond, a couple of ticks up for MATIF Wheat, +£0.25 for London Feed, nothing much exciting.
In Chicago, funds bought 4,500 Corn and 4,000 Wheat but sold 3,000 Soybeans. Being the cut-off for the net CFTC COT, market will expect funds to be seller for the week across the board: 500 lots for Wheat, 11,500 lots for Corn 4,500 lost for Soybeans.
Night session is still lower on Soybeans. It seems to be expected the USDA WASDE could be the biggest bearish attraction. Cordonnier has raised its Brazilian soybeans output at 110MT, it is currently 108MT in the USDA WASDE. It seems like the weather challenges in Argentina will be more than compensated by the Brazilian crop. Also, the struggle on US exports could be due to quality issues. Soybeans are down -4.75 cents overnight. Corn is more or less flat, Wheat between 2 ticks and a cent down. EU markets are expected flat so far.
That would be too boring if a GASC tender was happening without side-story or drama. There are plenty of subjects available: ergot, poppy seeds, radioactivity, payment terms, inspections,… This time traders went on strike (considering 7 trading houses were involved, it had to be concerted) and they just refused to offer. It was said there are a lot of small issues here and there with current and past executions, notably growing demurrage fees, and traders wanted to make a point. They did indeed. GASC told them “offers will be presented against the promise that issues will be resolved”… And that was enough to attract the offers! To be honest, considering the amount of Russian wheat to sell and export, they were probably reluctant to push the bluff too far and they needed to be aggressively pricing anyway. Russian wheat was offered between $192 and $201.95 FOB for a total of 475kT and Romanian wheat at $204.75 FOB for 60kT. GASC booked 115kT of Russian wheat at an average of $207.86 CNF. Since July 2017, they have booked a total of 3.72MT out of each 3.18MT (85%) is from Russia. 3 years ago, at this time of the season, this was only 33%. The main loser is French wheat, 3 years ago at this time of the season it was 43% of the supply it is now 2% (a single 60kT vessel). It is an issue for France, fortunately they still have Algeria, but with a decent crop this season, they are struggling exporting the surplus. Outside EU exports are obviously significantly higher from poor previous season (+34% to 2.76MT at the end of November) but it’s far from being enough. Egypt can now last until mid-May with their stock.
Jordan is seeking both 100,000T of wheat and barley, with the usual difficult tender specs.
Interesting Trade Balances yesterday: Germany +€22.3b, France -€5.7b. Not much today, UK Manufacturing Production expected at +0.3% and US Crude Oil Inventories at -3.9M barrels. EURUSD is trading below 1.1950, GBPUSD around 1.3515 and GBPEUR around 1.1310.