Down across the board, it was the last settle before the USDA WASDE! Now the clock will just be ticking until later today for sure! Soybeans ended down again -5.00 cents to finish spot on 950 cents. Wheat was down but nothing too dramatic, -1.00 cent in Chicago, a single tick down in Kansas and -4.00 cents in Minneapolis. Corn was flat though. On the other side of the pond, correction day also, with MATIF Wheat down -€1.75 and London Feed -£0.80.
Not much to talk about really, we know what to expect (or not – at least we know where to look at!) form USDA WASDE and there is no real fundamental news. The only thing is the US Drought Monitor, it’s not super pretty but. With higher temperatures, it should bring some rain and the key period is the spring really, but clearly, La Niña effects are definitely there.
In Chicago, funds sold 1,000 Corn, 5,000 Soybeans and bought 2,000 Wheat.
Night session is very quiet, 2 to 3 ticks up across the board, nothing major, wait and see until the report. European market are more or less flat, one tick down on the MATIF somewhere in the curve but that’s basically it.
South Korea MFG bought 70,000T of Corn. Saudi is in the market for 690,000T of feed barley. US Export Sales were so weak one could think it was a mistake on wheat: 71.5kT, oops! I’s not even due to cancellations… Just lack of sales! Corn and soybeans sales were much more respectable, but nothing fancy though: 437.8kT and 607.4kT.
The only noticeable move is clearly EURUSD, rallying above 1.2125. US PPI was quite ugly to be fair, -0.1% while +0.2% was expected. That being said, we’re talking about December and retailers may have been very aggressive after Thanksgiving (November was good with +0.4%) to end the year on better volume, especially considering the fierce competition between retailers on the main street and Amazon. Core PPI was also -0.1%. US Unemployment Claims were also not as good as expected with 261k (expected at 246k). It gives the fundamental catalyst to get over the 1.20 resistance and EURUSD is now well established over it. GBPUSD is also trading higher, just above 1.36. This is a lower extent, GBPEUR is struggling indeed, trading back down around 1.1225. Nigel Farage scenario is unfortunately very realist but the outcome he expect is less. He is confident that the deal will be rejected by the parliament and then the Government will move to a second referendum. Likely to be lost though. But there are multiple amount of possibilities: deal, no deal (WTO terms), no deal (remain within the EU). So still a lot of uncertainty and the GBPEUR could suffer in the coming months…