Commodities

Morning Comment – #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans #OATT @CFTC #COT – 22/01/2018 10.05am GMT

Soybeans moved up +4.25 cents on Friday while Wheat was generally softer (-2.50 cents in Chicago, -2.00 cents in Kansas and Minneapolis). And Corn, as usual these days, stuck in the middle (+1.00 cent). Nothing much to report, a quiet Friday really. MATIF Wheat was a couple of ticks down while London Feed moved down -£0.70. In Chicago, funds bought 3,500 Corn, 5,000 Soybeans and sold 2,000 Wheat.

Talking about funds… It sounds like the CFTC COT is showing a record short. Aggregated short of Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans is now 473,212 lots, this is quite astonishing. The only real surprise on the COT is the fact that funds sold Soybeans (10,562 lots, increasing their short position to 103,397 lots) while Reuters was expecting to see them buyers of 2,000 lots. Funds sold 13,949 lots of Wheat and 4,360 lots of Corn, increasing their respective short position to 142,939 lots and 226,876 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, a bit of short covering as funds have bought 5,000 lots of Wheat, 14,000 lots of Corn and 11,000 lots of Soybeans.

Over the week, Soybeans moved up +1.74% as well as SoyMeal with +4.61% while SoyOil moved down -2.57%. Corn moved up +1.81% in Chicago and -1.97% in US dollar on MATIF (EURUSD moved up +0.29%). Wheat was up in Chicago and Kansas, respectively +0.54% and +0.29% but down in Minneapolis (-0.29%) with the premium of Minneapolis closing at 181 cents to Kansas and 185.75 cents to Chicago. On the other side of the Pond, MATIF Wheat was down -0.99% in US dollar and London Feed +0.67% in US dollar (mind you, BPUSD was up +0.89% so in British Pounds, London Feed was down like MATIF, by -0.21%). Finally, ICE Canola moved up +0.35% in US dollar (with USDCAD up +0.26%) and MATIF Rapeseed was down -1.77% in US dollar.

US Export Sales were encouraging as corn commitments finally paced up (it will still need to be shipped) to 1.888MT. Soybeans sales were decent with 1.240MT but wheat sales are still quite depressing, no post-holiday rebound there with only 0.153mT.

Night session is strong across the board with Soybeans up +7.50 cents, Corn up +1.75 cents and Wheat up +3.50 cents in Chicago, a tad less in Kansas and Minneapolis but in a very small extent. MATIF has opened up, just by a tick while London feed is rebounding with +£1.25.

GASC is seeking sunflower oil and soybean oil.

Nothing much on the macro stats, Friday Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment was lower than expected to 94.4 and Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectation moved up by a tick month on month (after revision actually, else it would have been flat) to +2.8%. Main news however, is US Government Shutdown and US dollar is generally weaker this morning with EURUSD trading above 1.2240, GBPUSD just below 1.3900 and GBPEUR Cross Rate around 1.1350. How long should it last is going to be a key element there, if it’s short, no real bother, but if it’s a long and nasty shutdown, it could hurt the US economy. Otherwise, no major stats are expected today.

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