USDA WASDE!!! One of those fun days…
Wheat old crop, nothing. Wheat new crop, ending stocks +2.79MT to 268.89MT! Kazak crop is raising by +0.80MT and Indian use is decreasing by -2MT. Nothing else. Wheat stocks are 35.44% of the production, 36.21% of the use, they are raising by +16.29MT from one crop to another. Should there be a tough crop coming, there is a lot of buffer! Market closed up +2.00 cents in Chicago, -1.00 cent in Kansas and +4.75 cents in Minneapolis.
Corn old crop ending stocks moved up +2.1MT as world use was cut by -2.8MT and production cut by -0.74MT. It helps the new crop… Even with that, ending stocks are slashed by -3.92MT to 199.17MT, 19.12% of the production, 18.54% of the use. Overall the production is unchanged (+0.01MT to 1,041.74MT) even if Argentina is cut by -3MT to 36MT, Brazil cut by -0.5MT to 94.5MT while South Africa is raised by +0.5MT to 13MT and EU raised by +1.05MT to 61.14MT. It’s really coming from the use raised by +6.02MT, a bit everywhere, bot feed and non-feed. Nothing much more particular to say actually. One very noticeable thing is the US exports, raised by +4.45MT to 56.52MT, that’s +8.55% from one month to another… It’s must larger than expected so considering the bad seasonality in the export inspections this will have to be monitored closely. Unsurprisingly, market reaction was positive and market closed up +6.25 cents.
Soybeans old crop ending stocks are up +0.51MT, helped by larger beginning stocks (+0.36MT) and lower crush (-0.33MT). Here as well it helps a bit the new crop as stocks are cut by -3.74MT to 94.4MT, 27.69% of the production, 27.46% of the use. World production is cut by -6.06MT to 340.86MT, driven by, it was expected, Argentina (-7MT to 47MT), slightly offset by Brazil (+1MT to 113MT). Use is raised +0.58MT, driven by Brazilian crush (+1MT). US exports are cut by -0.95MT to 56.2MT, it will for sure hele inspection data to look better. Market ended actually down -1.25 cent.
On the other side of the pond, MATIF Wheat was flat and London Feed was up +0.25 cents.
In Chicago, funds bought 28,000 lots of Corn, 2,000 lots of Wheat and sold 4,500 lots of Soybeans.
Night session is showing a second thought. After all, if revision from one month to another looks bullish, is the full picture actually really bullish? Soybeans are correcting -14.75 cents, Corn -1.00 cent and Wheat -5.50 cents in Chicago, -6.00 cents in Kansas and -4.50 cents in Minneapolis. In Europe, MATIF is down -€0.50 and London Feed -£0.25.
On Wednesday GASC booked again Russian wheat, 175,000T between $229.75 and $231.10 CNF. Taiwan’s MFIG bought 52,000T of corn, South Korea’s KFA bought 120,000T of corn.
US will put tariffs on for aluminium and steel… China (and EU) are unhappy. Would be interesting to see if China will put some retaliation, on – why not – soybeans!
Non-Farm Payroll were better than expected to 313k (202k expected) but unemployment rate was a tick higher than expected to 4.1%. EURUSD is trading above 1.2275, GBPUSD around 1.3815 and GBPEUR cross rate around 1.1250.