Friday was a kind of déjà vu… Soybeans up +8.75 cents, Wheat down -11.00 cents in Chicago (-14.00 cents in Kansas, -3.75 cents in Minneapolis) and Corn stuck in the middle at -4.00 cents. If Soybeans and Corn were pushed up by South America, Wheat was pushed up mainly by the US drought, but it might have been in a too great extent as Chicago Wheat K8 peaked at 518.50 cents at the start of the month. It has corrected since then by almost -10%: maybe a reminder that even though US wheat production would be hit (nothing sure just yet, spring rains are going to be the key and fair enough, it needs to start like right now), there will probably be plenty of wheat somewhere and a lot of countries would welcome (and probably need) lower US exports considering the flood of wheat coming from the Black Sea. On the other side of the Pond, MATIF was down -€0.75 and London Feed -£1.15.
In Chicago, funds sold 9,500 Corn, 9,000 Wheat and bought 7,000 Soybeans. Reuters was off by quite a mile in its CFTC COT estimates though… Funds were expected to be seller of 13,000 Wheat, 17,500 Soybeans and buyer of 30,500 Corn: they actually sold only 3,053 Wheat, were actually on the buy side for 24,489 Soybeans and bought more Corn than expected, buying 69,529 lots. Funds are now long 233,063 lots of Corn and 208,200 lots of Soybeans, meanwhile, the only short resisting is wheat, to 35,584 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, funds were estimated (for what it is worth…) to be seller of 13,000 lots of Wheat, seller of 25,500 Corn and buyer of 3,000 Soybeans.
A rather chaotic week on the markets, all over the place, weather market, technical, profit taking, short covering,… A bit of everything! ICE Canola moved down -0.62% in US Dollar (but USDCAD was up +2.22%, so in Canadian dollar, it was up +1.59%), MATIF Rapeseed +0.79% in US dollar (EURUSD was down -0.15%), Soybeans were up +0.99%, SoyMeal -0.19%, SoyOil +1.23%, Corn -1.98% in Chicago and +0.46% on MATIF in US dollar, Wheat was down -4.39% in Chicago, -4.03% in Kansas, -0.93% in Minneapolis, with the premium ending the week at 112.25 cents to Kansas and 144.00 cents to Chicago, MATIF Wheat was up +0.77% in US dollar and London Feed Wheat +0.21% in US dollar (but GBPUSD was up +0.66%, London Feed Wheat was therefore down -0.45% in British Pounds).
Night session is starting with profit taking across the board as Soybeans are down -13.00 cents, Corn -4.50 cents and Wheat -8.75 cents in Chicago, -16.75 cents in Kansas and -2.50 cents in Minneapolis. It is helped by rains coming in the US and optimistic forecast for Argentina. In Europe, same trend as MATIF is trading down -€1.25 and London Feed -£1.35.
Iraq has received offers for its wheat tender, with Australian wheat being the most competitive ($306 CNF). Iran is seeing 30,000T of soybean oil, Jordan is seeking 100,000T of barley, Japan is seeing 127,338T of food quality wheat,… Bust=y start of the week!
Oil is trading down this morning, around $62.15 for NYMEX Crude (ICE Brent at $3.85 premium), the take two of the Beast from the East was not as harsh as anticipated.
G20 meetings today and tomorrow. Could be a bit shaky on the currencies. Quiet start so far, EURUSD is flattish, trading around 1.2290, GBPUSD is rebounding, trading around 1.5025, GBPEUR cross-rate is trading around 1.1410. UK CPI tomorrow, expected at +2.8% and FOMC on Wednesday: +0.25% hike?