EU markets were closed on Easter Monday but US markets were on and the big question was: will the rebound after the report be confirmed? So far not, and next sessions are going to be interesting purely technically to see if the move is validated or invalidated. Soybeans ended down -9.25 cents, Corn -0.50 cent and Wheat -4.75 cent in Chicago, +0.25 cent in Kansas and -5.00 cents in Minneapolis. Funds bought 3,500 lots of Corn in Chicago, sold 8,000 lots of Soybeans and 3,500 lots of Wheat. But to be fair, market will be very sensitive to rains, especially considering the poor wheat conditions. Indeed, the weekly crop report is back! And it starts on a very poor note. Only 32% of the US winter wheat is rated G/E, -19% from last year! This is the second worse ratings in 20 years…  Bit trivial to compare but in 2002, the ratings were similar and yield ended barely over 40 bushels per acre on average… Last season it was 46.3 bushels per acre. Big question: is  15% of the US crop at risk? Rains clear needed! Finally, 30% of the winter wheat is rated P/VP, versus 14% last year. In Kansas and Oklahoma, there was no winter wheat rated Excellent…

 

US Export Inspections were poor again on wheat with 361.7kT, corn is on a positive momentum (1,349.0kT) but more is needed to fill the gap created since the beginning of the season. Soybeans shipments were pretty poor and it won’t help to fill the gap for sure. If wheat exports are still a target that can be realistic, weeks after weeks, another cut of US corn and soybeans exports in the next USDA WASDE seems necessary…

 

Trade war is on between US and China as to retaliate on steel and aluminium, China put tariffs on 128 US products: ethanol, fruits, nuts, pork,… it could have an impact on Corn market as it will for sure prevent Chinese buyers to buy US ethanol. So far, soybeans are safe!

 

China sold 133,760T of its ageing wheat reserve, 6.48% of the volume offered to auction. Algeria’s OAIC is seeking milling wheat, 50,000T nominal but they usually snap more than this. Black Sea wheat is not admissible to the tender, thanks notably to heavy lobbying coming from France, but one day or another, this will end. Japan is seeking 125,014T of food quality wheat for US, Canada and Australia. Iraq is seeking again 50,000T of wheat from Canada, US or Australia, no Black Sea wheat on the tender but they do buy some outside their tender process for sure…

 

UK Manufacturing PMI was a tad better than expected with 55.1, GBPUSD s trading around 1.4075 while GBPEUR cross rate is trading around at 1.1440. Yesterday, ISM Manufacturing PMI was on the other side worse than expected to 59.3. EURUSD is trading a few ticks above 1.2300.

 

Night session is correcting the correction so far… Soybeans are up +6.50 cents, Corn down -0.25 cent and Wheat up +4.25 cents in Chicago, +7.00 cents in Kansas and +0.75 cents in Minneapolis. MATIF Wheat is barely ticking higher while London Feed is trading down -£0.75 but market is getting quite irrelevant as the local crop is more or less sold out forward and physical is getting close to import parity.

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