Wheat is on fire! A strong Friday across the board, pretty convincing to be honest, but the big question will be if the underlying reason is proven to be correct. Basically, these days, Russia is the main topic. International markets got used very quickly to get awashed by Russian wheat but take 13MT away and it changes the shape of the supply. Very likely this won’t be as drastic but soil moisture in Black Sea is far from being encouraging and it seems that, with global stocks getting lower on wheat, corn and soybeans, there’s an asymmetry of risk and the bullish bet is less risky. Wheat ended up +20.75 cents in Chicago, +19.75 cents in Kansas, +14.25 cents in Minneapolis, +€2.50 in MATIF, +£0.75 in London. Soybeans and Corn followed with respectively +3.50 cents and +7.25 cents. Funds bought 18,000 lots of Corn, 4,000 lots of Soybeans and 15,000 of Wheat in Chicago on Friday.
Talking about funds, they sold across the board, but it is missing the rebound. Indeed, over the CFTC COT week, Wheat moved down -3.33%, funds sold 9,848 lots to come back to a short of 5,522. But from Wednesday to Friday they bought 16,500 lots, so next COT will be long across the board, especially considering the strong start of the week. Funds alos sold 20,220 Corn (decreasing their long to 191,672) and 18,981 lots of Soybeans (decreasing their long to 108,061. From Wednesday to Friday, they bought 3,500 Wheat and sold 13,500 Soybeans.
A bit of a messy week to be fair: ICE Canola moved down -0.67% in US dollar (USDCAD was up +0.70% so more or less flattish in Canadian dollar) and MATIF Rapeseed moved down -0.35% in US dollar (EURUSD was down -1.40%, so MATIF Rapeseed was actually up in euro, +1.07%). Soybeans were down -0.47%, SoyMeal down -0.61% and SoyOil down -1.05%. After the rebound, it finally met some selling and profit taking and beans are back down (as of Friday!) below the $10 mark. Corn was up +1.51% in Chicago, -0.51% in MATIF in US dollar (+0.90% in euro). But the main mover was Wheat indeed: +3.91% in Chicago, +4.01% in Kansas, +3.97% in Minneapolis (premium to Kansas ended at 90.20 cents and 110.75 cents to Chicago), +1% in MATIF in US dollar (+2.43% in euro) and -0.16% in London in US dollar (+0.36% in British Pounds).
Iraq bought 100,000T of US and Australian hard wheat, South Korean’s NOFI bought 63,000T of feed wheat while Pakistan is keen on exporting an additional 500,000T of wheat under the export subsidy program.
UKAgroConsult is raising the corn forecast for Ukraine by +3.5% to 26.6MT.
No major macro stat expected today, Europe is in slow motion on Whit Monday. US dollar is a tad stronger with EURUSD trading down 10 pips or so to around 1.1760, GBPUSD is down more or less 50 pips to 1.3425.
The week started on a stronger Soybeans not, as usual a big fight around the $10 level. They are trading up +16 cents today. Wheat is correcting, -11.50 cents in Chicago and Kansas, -9.75 cents in Minneapolis, -€0.75 in MATIF. But London feed is on the upside, the insularity of the market and the tight supply keeps mapping physical values close to import parity.